August M
The sudden change of power in Venezuela has triggered legal and geopolitical debate well beyond Latin America. For Moscow, the episode exposes how quickly influence built on personal alliances can collapse once those alliances are broken.
Rather than a routine diplomatic setback, the crisis has become a stress test for Russia’s strategy of projecting power far from its borders.
Legal fault lines
According to money.pl, the US intervention that ended Nicolás Maduro’s rule has raised serious questions under international law. Dr. Mateusz Piątkowski of the University of Lodz said the operation could be interpreted as a breach of the UN Charter.
He argued that allegations of drug trafficking, even if substantiated, do not automatically justify military action against a sovereign state. In his view, changing a government under the banner of an anti-drug campaign risks lowering the threshold for future interventions elsewhere.
For Russia, these legal debates matter because they reshape the rules under which its own partners may be targeted.
A shaken ally
Venezuela had been one of Russia’s most loyal partners outside the post-Soviet space. The removal of Maduro therefore marks a clear strategic defeat for the Kremlin.
The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed “deep concern” over attacks on Venezuelan territory and demanded the release of Maduro and his wife, Cecilia Flores, who face multiple life sentences in the United States.
The restrained tone of the response masks unease within Moscow’s political establishment.
Billions at risk
The geopolitical shock is accompanied by major financial exposure. Reuters estimates that between 2006 and 2017 Russia committed about $17 billion in loans and investments to Venezuela and its state oil company, PDVSA.
With the political order that guaranteed those arrangements gone, Moscow’s leverage has largely evaporated. Assets once secured through loyalty and oil-backed agreements are now vulnerable to renegotiation or outright seizure by a new authorities backed by Washington.
For the Kremlin, Venezuela highlights the cost of tying money to regimes rather than institutions.
Arms and debt
Military cooperation formed a core of the relationship under Hugo Chávez. In 2009, Venezuela signed contracts to buy Russian weapons, including T-72 tanks and S-300 air defense systems, financed by a $2.2 billion loan.
As the economy deteriorated under sanctions, Venezuela’s debt to Moscow climbed to $3.5 billion by 2017. Repayment became impossible without further political concessions.
Vladimir Putin later agreed to delay principal repayments scheduled for 2024–2027, effectively acknowledging that the partnership was being sustained for strategic, not financial, reasons.
A broader message
Political scientist Abbas Galliamov told money.pl that the episode carries a humiliating lesson for Russia’s elite.
He said the speed of the US operation demonstrated how fragile distant alliances can be when confronted by decisive force.
For Moscow’s security bloc, Venezuela now stands as a warning: years of investment and influence can be erased not gradually, but in a single geopolitical moment.
Sources: money.pl, Reuters
