Nicolai Haugsted
Trump’s election promise takes another hit after new study.
Donald Trump returned to the White House promising that sweeping deportations would create more opportunities for American workers. A newly released study, however, argues the economic picture has unfolded very differently.
According to The Daily Beast via. research from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) concludes that the administration’s intensified immigration enforcement has not translated into stronger labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers. Instead, the report points to signs that employment among American-born men has slightly declined in areas most affected by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity.
Researchers find no evidence of promised gains
Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump repeatedly argued that undocumented immigrants were taking jobs from American citizens.
At the time, he told supporters that immigrants were “taking your jobs” and pledged: “We’re going to save you.”
According to the NBER study, those expectations have not materialized.
“We show no evidence of positive effects of the labor market outcomes of U.S.-born workers.”
Researchers also concluded that increased immigration enforcement may have produced unintended consequences for local labor markets.
“Instead, ICE activity lowers the employment rate of U.S.-born male workers, likely driven by a combination of complementarities in production and reductions in economic activity, both reducing labor demand for U.S.-born workers.”
The study also found no evidence that employers increased wages to attract U.S.-born workers in areas experiencing heightened ICE operations.
Think tank points to ripple effects
The nonpartisan Immigrant Research Initiative argues that many undocumented workers fill roles that support jobs typically held by American-born employees rather than replacing them.
Construction was highlighted as one example. According to the organization, immigrant laborers often work alongside U.S.-born electricians and plumbers. When companies struggle to find laborers, construction projects slow down, reducing demand for other skilled trades as well.
The group also warned that large-scale deportation efforts can weaken local economies because fear of immigration enforcement may discourage both undocumented immigrants and legal residents from shopping at businesses, dining in restaurants, or paying taxes.
Labor market remains sluggish
The study arrives as broader employment figures continue to paint a mixed picture of the U.S. economy.
According to NBC News, employers added 181,000 jobs during 2025, compared with 1.46 million jobs in 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stood at 4.2 percent in June, slightly higher than the 4.0 percent recorded when Trump returned to office in January 2025.
Despite those figures, Trump struck an optimistic tone during a rally in Michigan earlier this week.
“The Golden Age of America is upon us,” the president said before adding, “we’re having the single greatest year we’ve ever had as a country.”
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment regarding the findings of the NBER report.
