Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It can “improve the chances” of the country being taken of the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.
In order to please the US, Syria, a long-time Russian ally under the former dictator Bashar al-Assad, has reportedly agreed to massively scale back the import of Russian crude oil, Reuters reports.
The timing coincides with Donald Trump announcing that he wants Syria taken off the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, and observers see the move from the new Syrian leadership as a way of showing the US they are willing to go far to get taken off the list.
If it happens, Syria would see the last major sanctions imposed since 1979 being lifted.
Not absolute, but can “improve the chances”
While American officials did not frame the oil cuts as an absolute requirement, Reuters reported that ending the purchases would “improve the chances of lifting the SST designation quickly and without complications.”
Russia has been the dominant crude oil supplier for Syria since the fall of al-Assad, with oil shipments from Russia increasing by 75% this year alone.
Looking for new partners
Syrian officials explained that buying from Moscow was never about loyalty. According to a Syrian source who spoke with Reuters, “Today, Syria relies on Russian oil out of necessity, not preference.”
The source noted that officials told American representatives, “Lift the SST designation and we’ll buy oil from somewhere else. We simply don’t have alternatives right now.”
Change is already brewing behind the scenes. A Syrian energy official told Reuters that a “radical change” in supply chains is expected. In June, Syria signed a deal with ConocoPhillips and Novaterra, while French giant TotalEnergies held talks over offshore exploration in July.
Squeezing Moscow’s grip
President Donald Trump notified Congress on July 8 of his intent to remove Syria from the terrorism list. That move triggered a 45-day review period. During this window, the administration must certify that Syria no longer supports terrorism.
Cutting oil ties also hits Moscow where it hurts. Navvar Saban, an analyst at the Arab Center for Contemporary Studies, told Reuters that Washington is “increasingly targeting the economic network that allows Russia to preserve influence after losing political ground in Syria.”
Still, breaking away will not be simple. Saban warned that “replacing volumes of Russian crude cannot happen overnight without risking fuel shortages or higher import costs for Syria.”
