Kenneth Glad
Motorists across the United States are paying more for fuel as volatility in global energy markets intensifies. The increase adds new pressure on household budgets at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Gasoline prices in the United States were already climbing before the latest flare-up in the Middle East. Refiners have been switching to summer-grade fuel, a formulation required under environmental rules that is more expensive to produce. That seasonal change has helped push pump prices higher for four straight weeks, according to Reuters.
Now the national average has crossed $3 per gallon for the first time since November, Reuters reported Monday, citing OPIS retail pricing data. The last sustained period well above that level came during the 2022 energy spike following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when prices surged past $4. Compared with that episode, this increase is more modest — but it is arriving at a politically sensitive moment.
The fresh upward pressure is tied to escalating military action involving the United States, Israel and Iran. Tehran’s retaliation has disrupted energy infrastructure in parts of the region and threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows. Brent crude rose more than 5% to near $77 per barrel in recent trading. When oil moves sharply, retail gasoline typically follows.
A Familiar Market Rule — and Political Risk
Energy traders often cite a rule of thumb: a $10 increase in crude oil prices tends to translate into roughly a 25-cent rise per gallon at the pump. Analysts reiterated that estimate this week, while cautioning that refinery outages or shipping bottlenecks can amplify the effect.
OPIS data show the U.S. average has just moved above $3. Tom Kloza, senior adviser at fuel supplier Gulf Oil, told Reuters he expects prices could reach about $3.25 per gallon in the near term if current conditions persist. That forecast is his assessment based on present wholesale and crude market trends.
For the White House, the optics matter. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that nearly half of respondents said they would be less likely to support President Donald Trump’s campaign against Iran if U.S. oil and gasoline prices rise.
“Gasoline prices are psychologically powerful,” Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial told the news agency. “They are the inflation number that consumers see every single day.”
Consumers Watching the Numbers
Unlike broader economic data, fuel prices are visible in real time on station signs. Even small increases draw attention.
Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, said: “In the week ahead, gasoline prices are likely to face heightened upward pressure as seasonal trends continue and markets navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape.”
That outlook depends on how long crude prices remain elevated and whether supply disruptions worsen. For now, drivers across the US are starting to see higher costs at the pump.
Sources: Reuters; OPIS pricing data; GasBuddy
