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When Russia falls, China might take half the country, Russian opposition activist says

China, Russia, Jinping, Putin
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He says that China’s territorial claims to Russian territory dates back more than 150 years.

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Garry Kasparov says Russia’s war is inseparable from Vladimir Putin’s grip on power.

In a wide-ranging interview, the former chess champion argues that any pause in fighting would only delay a broader geopolitical reckoning.

Speaking to RBC-Ukraine, the Russian opposition figure painted a stark picture of what could follow if the Russian state fractures.

War and power

Kasparov insists the conflict cannot end while Putin remains in office, but he also warned that the war might not end if Putin falls – simply because the Russian government needs the war.

He argues that war has become the Kremlin’s main instrument of control. In his view, any compromise that leaves the causes of the invasion unresolved would simply allow Moscow to regroup.

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Kasparov describes the confrontation as global in scope, saying it is aimed at liberal democracies rather than Ukraine alone. He believes Western leaders have avoided clearly stating that Ukraine must win.

China’s shadow

Kasparov predicts that the Russian empire in its current form is doomed. Yet he cautioned that a chaotic collapse could trigger territorial consequences far beyond Moscow.

“Half of Russia will become China,” he warned, suggesting that a power vacuum in Siberia and the Far East could invite Chinese expansion. In his assessment, this risk complicates calls for Russia’s total disintegration.

He said Beijing holds historic claims stretching “from Lake Baikal to Vladivostok,” territories that were part of China until the 19th century.

Opposition and future

Reflecting on Alexei Navalny’s death, Kasparov called it “The murder of Alexei Navalny,” but argued that Navalny’s broader political strategy had already reached its limits.

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He also urged Western governments to facilitate the departure of skilled Russian professionals, saying a “brain drain” could weaken the Kremlin’s war machine.

For now, Kasparov says the priority is clear: “Victory for Ukraine – freedom for Russia!”

Sources: RBC-Ukraine interview with Garry Kasparov

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