Kenneth Glad
A new snapshot of Democratic voters in California is offering early clues about the party’s future direction. Years before the next presidential race begins, divisions are already emerging among potential contenders.
A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, reported by the Los Angeles Times, shows Gov. Gavin Newsom with a noticeable lead among registered Democrats in his home state.
Rather than a dominant frontrunner, however, the results point to a field still taking shape.
Newsom is backed by 28% of those surveyed. The rest of the vote is spread across several national figures, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has built a strong progressive following, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a previous presidential candidate. Former Vice President Kamala Harris trails this group with 9%.
Uneven landscape
The numbers reveal as much uncertainty as momentum. No candidate approaches majority support, and the gap between first and fourth place reflects both Newsom’s advantage and the absence of a unified choice.
At the same time, there is a notable contradiction in Newsom’s standing. His approval rating among California voters sits at 48%, matched by an equal level of disapproval, according to the same survey.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, emphasized the scale of his lead despite that split. “It’s quite a positive result for Newsom,” he said. “He’s separated himself from the rest of the pack, and especially when you compare him to the other major Californian in the considerations, he’s three times as much as Kamala. That’s quite impressive.”
Cristina G. Mora, co-director of the poll, suggested his national profile may outweigh local frustrations. “Though Californians may hold mixed views on his gubernatorial tenure, they overwhelmingly see him as the strongest counter to Trump and MAGA candidates,” she said.
Voter patterns
Breakdowns within the data show a coalition that is far from uniform. Newsom performs more strongly among older Democrats, while Harris finds relatively greater support among younger voters, especially those under 30.
Both candidates draw higher levels of backing from Black and Latino voters than from white and Asian American Democrats. Gender differences also emerge, with more women placing Newsom among their top choices.
One unexpected detail stands out: neither candidate dominates in the Bay Area, despite their long political ties to the region.
The poll, conducted March 9–14 among 5,019 registered voters in English and Spanish, carries a margin of error of about 2.5 percentage points.
The findings add to a broader pattern seen in earlier surveys, where Democratic voters have shown limited enthusiasm for a repeat presidential bid by Harris and a cautious openness toward Newsom.
Their political paths have rarely intersected directly, but their contrasting profiles now highlight a wider question facing the party: whether experience on the national stage or a more combative state-level approach will resonate more in the years ahead.
With the 2028 race still distant, the results are less a prediction than an early indicator of how Democrats in a key state are beginning to sort through their options.
Sources: Los Angeles Times
