Kenneth Glad
Military leaders are reassessing how quickly threats can move from pressure to confrontation. The debate is no longer only about weapons, but also speed, resilience and production.
Latvia’s Chief of Defence, Major General Kaspars Pudāns, says Russia could view the years before 2030 as a rare chance to test NATO while Europe is still rebuilding its defenses.
In an interview with Deutsche Welle at the Kyiv Security Forum, Pudāns said the most dangerous period could be 2027 to 2029, before NATO’s new capabilities are fully in place.
Russia is already applying pressure
Pudāns said Latvia is watching Russian activity near its borders, including surveillance, provocations, cyber operations and migration pressure.
He argued that these actions show weakness as much as danger, because each incident pushes Latvia to improve procedures and prepare society more broadly.
Since 2019, Latvia has revised its national defense model so that municipalities, state bodies, NGOs and families all have a role in resilience.
Pudāns said Russia cannot currently launch a full-scale attack on NATO while much of its military remains tied down in Ukraine.
But if the war is frozen or ends, he warned, some mobilized troops could be shifted to new bases near NATO borders, including in northern Russia.
“If I had been in the Kremlin, I would say that the window of my capabilities was 2027-2029,” he said.
Ukraine shapes Latvia’s defense
The Latvian commander said Ukraine has bought NATO time and changed how Latvia thinks about defense, technology and innovation.
“We want to learn from Ukraine not only the use of technology,” Pudāns said. “We have a kind of alliance, it is, perhaps, both unofficial and defensive, but we are well aware that our line of defense – Latvia and the Baltic countries – passes through Ukraine.”
The Financial Times reported that Pudāns also sees Russia’s drone advantage in mass production, not necessarily better technology.
Pudāns said drones and autonomous systems will not replace soldiers entirely, but will strengthen them.
“I would say, together with infantry,” he said. “Infantry will remain those who capture and hold territory.”
Latvia has moved toward defense spending of 5 percent of GDP, with more than half of the budget directed toward new technologies and equipment.
Sources: Deutsche Welle, Financial Times
