Camilla Jessen
The consequences, they suggest, may be visible from our planet.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in late December 2024, is about 60 meters in diameter.
Early calculations briefly suggested it carried an unusually high risk of hitting Earth, drawing global attention, according to Scientific American.
Further observations later excluded any danger to Earth. However, scientists now say there remains a measurable chance the asteroid could collide with the Moon.
A new study estimates a 4.3% probability of impact on December 22, 2032.
To reach that conclusion, researchers ran 10,000 orbital simulations to refine the asteroid’s trajectory and account for the gravitational effects of the Earth, Moon and Sun.
What an impact could look like
If a collision occurs, models suggest it would strike a region roughly 3,000 kilometres north of the Moon’s Tycho crater. The energy released would be equivalent to about 6.5 million tons of TNT, making it the most powerful lunar impact ever modelled in the modern scientific era.
The impact would generate a flash of light comparable in brightness to Venus in the night sky. Researchers say the glow could last several minutes and be clearly visible for at least 10 seconds.
In most scenarios, sunlight would limit naked-eye visibility from Earth, but the event would still be detectable with amateur telescopes regardless of where on the Moon it occurred.
Debris and meteor activity
Beyond the initial flash, the collision could eject up to 100 million kilograms of lunar material.
Some of that debris would escape the Moon’s gravity and head toward Earth.
Scientists say this could trigger intense meteor activity in Earth’s atmosphere between two and 100 days after the impact. Such “super meteor storms” would offer a rare chance to study how lunar impacts affect the broader Earth-Moon system.
Sources: Scientific American
