Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Even the Russian leader can’t win the fight against time – so what will happen, when he is no longer here?
Vladimir Putin’s eventual departure from the Kremlin — whether sudden or carefully managed — could prove to be one of the most destabilizing moments in post–Cold War Europe.
That is the central warning in an October 2025 commentary by researchers at RAND Europe, who argue that Western governments may be underestimating the risks surrounding a leadership transition in Moscow.
Far from guaranteeing a more moderate Russia, the end of Putin’s tenure could open a volatile period marked by elite rivalry, strategic uncertainty and heightened security dangers.
Second only to Stalin
The commentary, written by RAND Organisation Research Leader, John Kennedy, RAND Europe Research Leader, Natalia Zwarts, and junior analyst at RAND Europe, Ondrej Palicka, notes that Putin, now 73, is Russia’s longest-serving leader since Joseph Stalin and has spent that time building a political system that revolves tightly around his authority.
According to the RAND analysis, influence within that system does not flow primarily through transparent institutions, but through networks of personal loyalty that connect senior officials, security chiefs and state-aligned business leaders to the president himself.
That structure complicates succession planning. Publicly elevating a clear heir could shift the internal balance of power and unsettle competing factions. As a result, no obvious successor has emerged.
Who will come next?
Speculation often centers on prominent figures drawn from the Kremlin administration, the security services, major state corporations and the federal government.
But the RAND authors caution that proximity to Putin does not necessarily translate into control during a transition.
Because many senior figures derive their authority from their personal relationship with him, his exit could weaken — rather than consolidate — their standing.
Not much to learn from history
Russia’s recent political history underscores how unpredictable such moments can be. Boris Yeltsin’s decision to appoint Putin as prime minister in 1999 surprised many observers, as did Dmitry Medvedev’s elevation to the presidency in 2008 while Putin temporarily stepped aside.
Earlier periods of upheaval, including the Soviet collapse, were marked by fragmentation and internal competition.
The geopolitical stakes today are far higher. Russia possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and remains deeply engaged in the war in Ukraine. Moscow’s strategic alignment with Beijing adds another layer of complexity.
A contested succession could trigger internal instability, more aggressive foreign policy behavior, or both.
The West must prepare
To mitigate those risks, the RAND commentary calls on NATO and European Union members to incorporate succession scenarios into their strategic planning. That includes conducting joint exercises, improving intelligence assessments of elite networks, and preparing coordinated diplomatic and military responses to potential instability.
The authors also argue that Western policymakers should avoid repeating assumptions made in the 1990s, when many believed Russia was on an inevitable path toward liberal democracy. A future leadership change, they suggest, may produce outcomes ranging from reform to retrenchment — or even intensified confrontation.
Whenever it occurs, Putin’s departure will not automatically resolve tensions between Russia and the West. Preparing for multiple possibilities now, rather than reacting in crisis mode later, could determine how stable Europe remains in the years that follow.
Sources: RAND Europe commentary (October 2025); historical reporting on Russian leadership transitions
