Kathrine Frich
Western analysts warn the confrontation is far from over.
Attention is now shifting beyond the front lines, to what Russia might do next.
One NATO city, small but symbolically charged, is increasingly being mentioned by security experts as a potential flashpoint.
A dangerous focus
Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former British diplomat and professor at King’s College London, has warned that Vladimir Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine.
He told the Daily Mail that Russia’s war effort should be seen as unfinished.
The expert argued that even a pause in fighting would not mean de-escalation. Instead, he said Moscow could test NATO’s resolve through limited, calculated moves.
He suggested Russia may begin by “nibbling on the edges of Ukraine” to assess how far Western guarantees really go.
Why narva matters
Willasey-Wilsey singled out Narva, an Estonian city on the Russian border, as especially vulnerable.
“The one I’ve always considered very dangerous is Narva, which has an 80 percent Russian population,” he said.
He questioned whether NATO’s largest power would respond militarily to an attack there.
“Do we really think the United States would go to war over a single city in Estonia? I’m not sure about that anymore.”
Narva lies directly opposite the Russian town of Ivangorod, separated only by the Narva River, making it a strategic and symbolic frontier.
A complex past
According to reporting cited by Chatham House analysts, Narva’s demographics heighten concern.
Around 97 percent of residents speak Russian, and many have close family ties across the border.
After Estonia regained independence, the city and nearby areas voted in an unofficial referendum for autonomy.
The Estonian government later ruled the vote unconstitutional, amid suspicions of Moscow’s quiet involvement.
Fears deepened after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and comments by Putin in 2022 suggesting Narva should be “reclaimed”.
Despite Estonia being one of Ukraine’s strongest supporters, daily life in Narva remains shaped by its Soviet past and proximity to Russia, leaving NATO with an uncomfortable dilemma.
Sources: Daily Mail, Ziare.
