Kathrine Frich
China is quietly tightening its grip on its relationship with Russia.
When a partnership is built purely on convenience, the power dynamics can flip in an instant.
For years, one major global player projected total authority over its allies.
Now, the cracks are showing, and former subordinates are starting to make their own rules.
Shifting the balance
China is quietly tightening its grip on its relationship with Russia. The subtle shifts are not happening in grand political speeches, but in the gritty details of trade and infrastructure.
According to O2 citing EUobserver, the Chinese government has delivered a “double blow” to the Kremlin. Beijing is using its economic weight to stall key Russian projects.
One major target is the Arctic. China reportedly halted deliveries of naval propulsion systems that Moscow desperately needs for its Northern Sea Route.
Blocking the pipeline
The pressure extends deep into the energy sector. The massive Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline is virtually frozen right now.
This project was supposed to pump 50 billion cubic meters of gas every year. Instead, Chinese negotiators are demanding rock-bottom prices that match what local Russian citizens pay.
Lucas points out that Beijing holds all the cards here. China can easily buy its energy from other countries. Meanwhile, Russia faces a hard deadline in 2027 when pipeline exports to the European Union will finally stop.
Neighbors take notice
With Moscow distracted, smaller nations in the region are testing the waters. Kazakhstan recently blocked imports of certain Russian wheat, according to the EUobserver analysis.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a public point of showing support for Ukraine. The diplomatic message was clear.
Armenia is also bypassing Moscow. It is pushing forward with a new railway connection to Turkey and Azerbaijan. This comes despite delays from Russian authorities, who officially manage that exact rail network.
A growing reliance
The broader financial squeeze is forcing the Kremlin into a corner. A recent report from The Economist highlighted how Western sanctions leave Moscow almost completely reliant on Beijing.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are adding to the pain. In fact, Moscow might soon be forced to import basic fuel from its eastern neighbor.
And while Beijing claims to be neutral, it continues to ship vital microelectronics and industrial tools. These supplies keep the Russian military machine running.
Sources: O2, EUobserver, The Economist
