Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The wheels are in motion, and the results are already showing.
Russian-occupied Crimea faces a real threat of total isolation. Ukrainian drone strikes are heavily targeting Russia’s transport networks, meaning the occupied peninsula could soon find itself cut off from crucial supplies.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov highlighted this shifting reality in a recent interview published on June 17. He explained that aerial technology is changing the map.
“Crimea is being isolated by drones. In the near future, it appears that the Crimean peninsula will turn into an island,” Fedorov said, speaking in an interview with the YouTube channel PRESSING.
According to the minister, the growing deployment of medium-range strike drones is making it incredibly difficult for Russian forces to maintain their usual supply routes. The pressure is mounting.
Hell is beginning
Fedorov kept some details secret but dropped a strong warning. “And this could lead to very unexpected consequences for the Russians. I can’t say anything more.”
To back this up, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry expanded its drone operations massively. The country contracted 300 percent more Middle Strike drones in the first four months of 2026 compared to all of 2025, he said.
These weapons regularly hit targets in occupied southern areas and key supply paths. Kyiv also launched a “logistics lockdown” program to send money straight to front-line units for buying drones quickly.
Cutting the lines
The minister believes the pressure will only intensify for Moscow. “Logistics are being cut off. Crimea is being isolated,” Fedorov said.
Fedorov noted a direct link between wrecking Russian transport lines and slowing down their front-line assaults. Kyiv is targeting these critical connection points.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian military command is drawing up plans to pull its remaining naval structures out of occupied Crimea.
A partisan group called Atesh, which has agents operating inside the Black Sea Fleet, reported that the Russian leadership wants to move the remaining command hub from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. That destination sits safely inside Russian territory.
Can Putin be forced to retreat from Crimea?
The Crimean Peninsula has been occupied by Russia since 2014, and it has become an important logistical hub for Russian operations in the rest of Ukraine.
However, the peninsula has only a few ways of receiving supplies, including Putin’s 19 km Kerch Bridge, which links the Russian mainland to the peninsula, and Ukraine is continuously targeting the limited supply lines that remain.
If the situation for Russian forces on the peninsula continues to deteriorate, one can’t help but wonder: Can Ukraine actually force Putin to abandon Crimea?
It’s becoming increasingly possible
On June 4, RBC-Ukraine interviewed Refat Chubarov, Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People, on that very topic.
In the interview, Chubarov said that hope among the thousands of Kyiv-loyal citizens in Crimea is growing stronger and that if Ukraine succeeds in enforcing a total blockade of Russian supply lines to the peninsula, “the Russians will have no choice but to figure out how to evacuate their forces from Crimea.”
He emphasizes that he is no military expert, but that, based on what he has heard and read, analysts believe that the destruction of the Kerch Bridge could trigger a chain reaction of events leading to a Russian retreat.
It is important to note that this is all speculation, but what we do know for a fact is that the situation in Crimea is changing rapidly due to the Ukrainian strike campaign.
The idea of Ukraine forcing Russia to retreat from Crimea was actually floated as early as June 2024 in a report by the Atlantic Council.
You can watch the entire interview on PRESSING’s YouTube channel here (opens new tab).
