Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Third time likely won’t be a charm for the Russian leader.
A renewed Russian push is underway in eastern Ukraine, but expectations remain tempered.
Early signs suggest intensified fighting, yet analysts warn the campaign may fall short of decisive gains.
Last weekend, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Russian forces appeared to have launched their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive with a surge in mechanized assaults and increased troop movements along the front between March 17 and 21.
The effort is focused on Ukraine’s so-called Fortress Belt, a line of four heavily fortified cities in Donetsk Oblast.
The Ukrainian Fortress Belt
The urban cluster, aligned along the H-20 highway, was home to more than 380,000 people before the war.
According to ISW these defenses present a major obstacle for Russian troops.
Previous attempts to capture the area in 2014 and 2022 failed, and ISW now say a renewed effort could take years and come at significant cost in both manpower and equipment.
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Difficult advance
Russian forces have struggled to rapidly seize urban centers of comparable size. ISW noted that capturing Pokrovsk, a smaller town with a pre-war population of 60,000, took nearly two years.
Officials in Moscow are already signaling caution. On March 26, State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov told News.ru it was too early to speak of a “triumphant spring offensive,” describing conditions on the front as difficult.
He highlighted the complexity of fighting in Kostyantynivka, citing both its scale and Ukraine’s fortified defenses. Analysts suggest such messaging reflects Kremlin awareness that success is far from guaranteed.
At the same time, Russia is pressing Ukraine to concede unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast, a move ISW says could reduce battlefield costs and strengthen Moscow’s long-term strategic position.
Ukrainian pressure
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are making gains in the south, reshaping the broader battlefield. The Ukrainian Air Assault Forces reported on March 26 that troops had liberated Berezove, removing a Russian foothold.
Kyiv claims more than 400 square kilometers have been retaken in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions since late January. ISW independently confirms at least 334 square kilometers, noting its estimates are conservative.
These advances are forcing Russia to divide its attention. Commanders have redeployed elite airborne and naval infantry units from Donetsk to the south, potentially disrupting offensive plans.
According to ISW, Russia has historically struggled to sustain simultaneous large-scale offensives. Ukraine’s recent progress may further complicate Moscow’s ambitions in the Fortress Belt.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, Ukrainian Air Assault Forces, News.ru
