Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Kremlin is trying to present the Russian economy as able to keep the war going, but analysts and intelligence assesses that it can’t go on.
Even though the Kremlin is trying to present the Russian economy as fully capable of sustaining its continued war effort in Ukraine, pressure is mounting beneath the surface, according to new intelligence assessments.
In an interview with The Financial Times, Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service chief, Lieutenant General Thomas Nilsson, said Russia’s economy has not rebounded despite higher oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East.
This aligns with the long-standing analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Strained finances emerge
Nilsson said Moscow requires Urals crude prices above $100 per barrel for at least a year to balance its budget, adding that even sustained high prices would not resolve deeper economic problems.
He warned that if oil prices stabilise and a ceasefire holds in the Middle East, Russia could face growing difficulty funding its war in Ukraine.
War model under pressure
Nilsson also highlighted what he described as an unsustainable growth model, noting it cannot compensate for heavy battlefield losses.
He added that much of Russia’s defence industry, aside from drone production, is operating at a loss, affected by corruption and reliant on loans from state-controlled banks.
The assessment aligns with previous analysis from the ISW, which has argued that prioritising military production is weakening civilian sectors and amplifying economic strain.
22 tons of gold sold in 2026
On Monday, The Moscow Times cited new data from the Russian Central Bank showing the Bank of Russia had sold nearly 22 tons of gold since the beginning of 2026.
The sale is an attempt to finance the federal budget deficit, which amounted to 4.6 trillion rubles ($61.8 billion) in March.
According to Trading Economics, Russia’s government budget deficit was 2.6% of the country’s GDP in 2025.
Sources: Financial Times, Institute for the Study of War, The Moscow Times, Trading Economics
