Kathrine Frich
Intelligence monitoring points to falling public support for Russian pro-government groups.
Behind closed doors at the highest levels of power, cracks often appear long before the public sees them.
Rumors of private disagreements usually stay hidden from view for years.
Now, a rare glimpse into a highly secretive inner circle has brought those hidden tensions straight into the light.
Divided at the top
Ukrainian intelligence operatives recently got their hands on highly classified documents from Moscow. The intercepted files provide a fascinating look at the current mood inside the Kremlin.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, known as HUR cited by WP, Vladimir Putin’s closest allies are no longer on the same page. Two clear camps have emerged within his elite circle over the last few months.
One powerful group strongly pushes to keep fighting the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, a rival faction desperately wants to find a fast way out through diplomatic peace talks.
Fear of losing control
The latest findings were shared by Vadym Skibitsky, a senior HUR official, during the YES Annual Meeting 2026. He painted a picture of a Russian government deeply worried about its grip on the country.
Vadym Skibitsky from HUR argued, “The regime is really afraid of internal disintegration and destabilization of the country.”
Intelligence monitoring points to falling public support for Russian pro-government groups. This trend is especially noticeable within the ruling United Russia party. Leaders in Moscow view this sudden drop in popularity as a serious warning sign.
The Russian president is also keeping a close eye on the country’s wealthy oligarchs. Skibitsky noted that recent moves to expand intelligence powers and draft new mobilization laws highlight this growing paranoia.
Finding the right people
With these internal divisions coming to light, Ukrainian officials want their global allies to pay attention. They see a major strategic opportunity in the growing unease.
“I believe that the priority for our international partners should be to obtain information on who in the Russian elites really wants to end the war and who would like to continue it,” Skibitsky added.
These intercepted files back up a steady stream of recent news reports. Both Russian state media and international outlets have recently highlighted Kremlin fears of a potential coup. They also point to rising anger among the wealthy elite who surround the president.
Sources: WP, Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), YES Annual Meeting 2026, Russian state media, international media
