Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the ISW, it marks the first sustained shift in momentum since Ukraine’s Kursk offensive in late 2024.
Ukrainian troops have effectively erased Russian territorial gains made since March 2026.
In its September 12 update on the war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that local counterattacks have wiped out Moscow’s net progress across key sectors. This marks the first sustained shift in momentum since late 2024.
Behind the numbers lies a fierce fight. Ukrainian forces reclaimed lost positions in and around Kupyansk while turning back fresh enemy pushes.
At the same time, stubborn defense operations prevented Russian commanders from sending troops deep into the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Most notably, troops wiped out a dangerous wedge north of Lyman. That move effectively broke Russian plans to encircle a crucial defensive belt in Donetsk.
By holding these lines, Ukraine disrupted a major objective that had threatened several key cities for months.
Running out of troops
Russia is still pushing forward in select areas. Forces under Moscow’s command made incremental gains near Kostyantynivka and east of Slovyansk.
Yet these small steps forward cost enormous resources without securing any kind of decisive strategic breakthrough.
Neither side currently holds total control across the wider battlefield. Analysts and intelligence officials assess that Russian commanders are reportedly pressing President Vladimir Putin for a massive new mobilization call-up, up to 800,000 troops.
They hope more troops will rebuild their momentum, though experts doubt it would quickly turn the tide against Ukraine’s advanced drone tactics.
The Kremlin has repeatedly denied any plans for a new mobilization, but the assessment is that it will happen following the Russian elections for the Duma later this month.
Six years behind schedule
Time is also working against Moscow’s strategic goals. The ISW previously calculated that at recent rates of progress, Russia would need until October 2032 to take the rest of Donetsk.
That timeline completely shatters Moscow’s original goal of seizing the entire region by the end of 2026.
And so the wider fight continues, with both sides grinding for leverage. While Russian forces keep spending men and armor for tiny patches of ground, Ukrainian counterattacks keep pulling them back to square one.
