Kathrine Frich
A simulated conflict has delivered a stark warning for Europe’s eastern flank.
Analysts say the exercise exposed vulnerabilities that could be exploited long before the continent is fully prepared.
The scenario has reignited debate over how quickly a wider crisis could unfold.
Threats come sooner
A Russian attack on NATO and EU member states could happen earlier than previously expected, according to European security officials cited by The Wall Street Journal.
Earlier estimates suggested Russia would not pose a serious threat to NATO before 2029, but that timeline is now being questioned.
Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said Russia could be ready to move large numbers of troops within a year.
He pointed to growing strategic reserves and an expanded Russian presence near NATO borders.
Former Soviet states Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are seen as the most likely initial targets.
Baltic focus widens
NATO planners are also concerned about possible Russian interest in Swedish,
Finnish and Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, as well as parts of Poland and northern Norway and Finland.
Analysts warn that Moscow could even threaten key European infrastructure, including major ports such as Rotterdam, to apply political and economic pressure.
These concerns have been amplified by recent military simulations.
A troubling exercise
In December 2023, German newspaper Die Welt and the Helmut Schmidt University War Games Center organized a simulation of a Russian invasion of Lithuania.
The scenario, set in October 2026, involved 16 former senior German and NATO officials, politicians and security experts.
Russia was portrayed as exploiting a supposed humanitarian crisis in Kaliningrad to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampolė.
Claims of a “humanitarian mission” discouraged the United States from invoking NATO’s Article 5.
Germany hesitated, Poland did not cross the border despite mobilizing forces, and access routes were blocked with drone-laid mines.
Deterrence questioned
“Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but also on what the enemy thinks of our will,” said Franz Stefan Gadi, a Vienna-based military analyst who played Russia’s chief of the general staff during the exercise.
“And during the game we knew that Germany would hesitate. That was enough for us to win,” he said.
Within days, the simulation concluded that Russia could consolidate control over the Baltic states with just 15,000 soldiers, severely undermining NATO’s credibility.
Reality check
Lithuanian officials caution that the exercise reflects worst-case assumptions.
Rear Admiral Giedrius Premeneckas, chief of staff of Lithuania’s armed forces, said intelligence warnings would make such a scenario harder to execute.
He noted that Lithuania fields 17,000 troops in peacetime and up to 58,000 after mobilization, enough to resist a limited incursion.
He added that any Russian move would risk the loss of Kaliningrad.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Institute for the Study of War, LA.lv
