Kathrine Frich
Vladimir Putin has been known to rely on sweeping claims that present Russia’s war as a string of victories.
These narratives often grow more dramatic when pressure mounts, and the gap between his statements and verifiable events continues to widen.
Analysts now say the Kremlin leader is again describing a war that exists only in his imagination.
Fresh assessments from independent observers show that his recent boasts about encirclements and advances have little in common with the reality on the front.
Collapsing narrative
Russian outlets have been promoting the idea of a “complete encirclement” of Ukrainian forces and a failing front line.
Yet according to the US Institute for the Study of War, the battlefield remains largely static without major breakthroughs.
Even several prominent Russian military bloggers, usually aligned with Kremlin messaging, have contradicted state media by challenging these claims.
Analysts say that Moscow’s propagandists continue to insist that Ukrainian troops are surrendering in large numbers and that the path to Kyiv has opened.
Commentators inside Russia who follow military operations closely describe these assertions as heavily distorted.
What the data shows
Information released from the combat zone presents a different picture than the one Putin is trying to portray.
Reports indicate that the front has not collapsed, although Russian forces continue to press in certain directions.
Analysts say Russia is still far from securing the decisive victory that Putin suggests in his public remarks.
The data also shows extensive Russian losses in both equipment and personnel, while Ukrainian forces maintain defensive positions and carry out localized counterattacks.
Claims about the capture of Kupyansk or most of Volchansk are described as overstated, and reports of multiple Ukrainian defense lines being surrounded are seen as dramatized.
Sources: LA.LV, Institute for the Study of War.
