Kathrine Frich
While Moscow continues to rail against NATO and the West, some analysts say the Kremlin may be overlooking a far more consequential challenge closer to home.
An expert on Russia has suggested that Beijing, not Washington, represents the most serious long-term threat to Russian territory.
China ‘waiting it out’
Keir Giles, a Russia specialist and author, told the Daily Express US that Moscow has long understood the strategic imbalance with China but prefers not to confront it directly.
“Russia has always known that China is the greater threat to it than the West. That’s why Russia works so very hard, ignoring the problem,” Giles said.
Instead, he argued, the Kremlin focuses its hostility on NATO, where rhetoric carries fewer immediate consequences.
“They can beat NATO with a rhetorical stick all day and not suffer any consequences. Russia pretends to partner with China, while China can tentatively wait while Russia destroys itself and President Xi Jinping can pick up the pieces,” he added.
Historic claims resurface
Large parts of Russia’s Far East, including territory known historically as Outer Manchuria, were ceded to the Russian Empire in the 19th century through treaties imposed on a weakened Qing dynasty.
In recent years, Chinese authorities have published maps using historical Chinese names for cities such as Vladivostok, referred to as Haishenwai, and Sakhalin, labeled Kuyedao.
Hardline voices in China have periodically called for the return of what they see as historically Chinese land.
Giles said Beijing “doesn’t make any secret of the fact that it would like to have the territories of the Russian Far East, which they consider historically Chinese, back eventually.”
Shifting balance
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping maintain close ties, analysts note that the balance of power between the two countries has shifted.
Sanctions imposed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine have increased Moscow’s economic dependence on Beijing.
Russia relies heavily on China to purchase its energy exports and to supply goods that help sustain its military-industrial base.
“The different trajectories of the two countries, with Russia growing weaker and China growing stronger, has been clear since a long before 2022 but the war in Ukraine has accelerated Russia’s dependence on China,” Giles said.
He argued that while a direct annexation of Russian territory by China is unlikely in the near term, Beijing can afford to be patient.
Any dramatic border changes would only occur once China is confident Moscow lacks the strength to resist.
Sources: Daily Express US
