Kathrine Frich
China and Russia have cultivated a close strategic and economic partnership for years, strengthened further after the invasion of Ukraine.
Energy has long been central to this relationship, with Moscow relying heavily on Chinese purchases to offset Western sanctions.
As global markets shift and new restrictions take effect, analysts have been watching how China manages its energy diversification.
Recent data now suggests that Beijing has adjusted its import patterns, signalling change in a sector crucial to Russia’s economy.
Russia overtaken in November
According to Kyiv Independent, citing information from Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported by Ukrinform, Russia lost its position as China’s largest oil supplier in November.
It was surpassed by a group of three countries: Saudi Arabia, Oman and Angola.
Intelligence data shows that 123 tankers carrying oil and petroleum products departed Russian ports in November 2025, which is 17 fewer than in October.
Of these vessels, 92 were part of Russia’s so called ghost fleet. Seventy seven of those ships were under sanctions and 15 were not.
Total exports fell to 14 million tonnes, equivalent to 101.8 million barrels, representing a drop of 2 million tonnes from the previous month.
Declines across key markets
The largest reductions were seen in shipments to India, China and Turkey.
Their combined decrease reached 4.6 million tonnes. Deliveries to other destinations also fell by 0.7 million tonnes.
The result contributes to a broader trend. Intelligence assessments cited by Ukrainian agencies note that 2025 is the first year since the war began in which Russian oil production and refining have shown a consistent decline.
Officials estimate that the Russian budget has already lost at least 37 billion dollars in oil and gas revenue, with companies in the energy sector losing tens of billions more.
Impact of new sanctions
The first month of sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Rosneft and Lukoil significantly reduced Chinese imports of Russian oil.
Between October 23 and November 21, supplies to China dropped from 41.7 million barrels to 37.2 million barrels, a decline of 11 percent.
Average daily imports fell from 1.39 million barrels to 1.24 million. Russia’s share of China’s crude oil market decreased from 14.7 percent to 11.2 percent.
For December, Rosneft and Lukoil each reported only three scheduled shipments to China, signalling a substantial contraction in their presence in this key market.
China compensated quickly for the shortfall by increasing purchases from Middle Eastern and African suppliers.
Within a single month, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Angola collectively pushed Russia out of the top position, leaving Moscow in second place.
Sources: Digi24, Kyiv Independent, Ukrinform
