Camilla Jessen
Kyiv says Russia preparing “military escalation” in Moldova’s breakaway region.
Ukraine’s military intelligence service (HUR) says Russia is rapidly expanding covert and military activity in Transnistria, signalling what it believes is a Kremlin plan to open a new front of pressure on Ukraine while destabilising neighbouring Moldova.
Mobilisation and drone production
Sources within HUR, quoted by the Kyiv Post, say mobilisation efforts have intensified across the breakaway region known as the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (TMR). Reservists are reportedly being summoned to local formations, and weapons are being removed from storage sites.
The agency also told the outlet that drone-production facilities and UAV training centres are already operating in the territory.
Kremlin aims to widen pressure
HUR believes the measures are designed to strengthen Russia’s presence in Transnistria and heighten instability in Moldova ahead of key political events.
The increased military activity, it says, raises the threat of sabotage teams attempting to enter southern Ukraine.
“Moscow sends special services agents to Transnistria, whose task is to aggravate the crisis, sow chaos through information operations, provoke and sabotage,” an intelligence source told the Kyiv Post anonymously.
HUR added that Gazprom’s gas cutoff to Transnistria in early 2025 left the region reliant on Moldova for energy, and that Russia is now seeking to restore influence ahead of the 2026 “presidential elections” in the enclave.
Hybrid operation and strategic leverage
According to HUR, the Kremlin’s current efforts aim to restore free Russian gas to Tiraspol, boost pro-Russian political figures and quietly reinforce Russian troops in the region.
The agency warned that Moscow intends to have “all accumulated forces and resources ready for a military escalation” if required.
Transnistria, a Moscow-backed separatist territory, broke away from Moldova during the 1991–92 conflict, which ended with the deployment of a Russian “peacekeeping” force.
Although Russia signed the 1999 Istanbul agreement committing to withdraw all troops by 2002, only limited equipment has been removed.
Moscow now insists its forces must remain for “regional stability.”
The territory’s 470,000 residents depend heavily on Russia, which finances around 70% of local government spending. Subsidised gas has helped sustain outdated Soviet-era industries, particularly steel production.
After Ukraine halted Russian gas deliveries in 2024, Moscow supplied humanitarian aid directly to residents.
Sources: Kyiv Post; HUR.
