Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the study, the casualty ratio is now eight Russians to one Ukrainian.
A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) shows Russia has lost its military momentum.
The human cost is staggering. Since February 2022, the Russian military has suffered 1.4 million casualties, including up to 450,000 deaths.
These numbers represent a massive historical shift. The death toll alone is four times higher than all American battlefield deaths since World War II combined. It is a burden the country cannot sustain.
Right now, the numbers are working against Moscow. In the first half of 2026, Russia has been losing more than 30,000 soldiers every month, while monthly recruitment has brought in only 27,000 new troops.
Technology is changing the game. According to the study, the casualty ratio is now nearly eight Russians to one Ukrainian, largely due to AI-enabled drones.
A stalled invasion
On the ground, Russia’s territorial gains are shrinking. During April and May 2026, Russian forces suffered a net loss of roughly 400 square kilometers, marking their first net territorial loss since August 2024, according to the CSIS report.
The invasion has slowed to a crawl. Troops are advancing by a mere 50 meters per day around Kostiantynivka. CSIS data show these are among the slowest advances in a century.
The struggles are so severe that President Vladimir Putin scaled back his annual military parade in May 2026 because of fears of long-range strikes.
Backlash at home
The war is no longer a distant event for Russian citizens. Major hubs such as Moscow and St. Petersburg face regular drone attacks, while Crimea has seen beach closures and rolling power outages.
Back home, ordinary Russians face a sputtering economy and soaring prices. Yet Putin remains undeterred.
CSIS assesses that the Russian leader still wants to destroy NATO’s credibility while forcing Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence. Instead, the report concludes, the war has only strengthened Ukraine’s national identity.
