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The Ukrainian campaign must be highly effective for the Kremlin to even consider such a move.
Russia’s federal budget is deeply dependent on revenue from oil and gas exports.
Reuters reported in January that the oil and gas revenue for Russia in 2025 fell to 24% – the lowest since 2020.
But imagine a company taking away a quarter of its revenue. It would be devastating to the economy of the business.
Well, Russian authorities are now considering doing something similar – and it’s because of Ukraine’s military brilliance.
Hard choices ahead
The Russian news agency Interfax reported on May 26 that the Kremlin is considering imposing a temporary ban on exporting diesel and jet fuel.
According to the agency, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held an urgent meeting on May 26 to debate the issue, where officials reportedly discussed a freeze lasting one to two months.
Any official timeline still needs final approval from the Ministry of Economic Development. In the meantime, the Kremlin has already advised local oil companies to start curbing their foreign shipments.
Observers split on whether both fuels will actually face the restriction. One industry source told Interfax that the state might only block jet fuel exports. They noted that domestic diesel supplies remain healthy for now.
Refineries under fire
Since March 2026, Ukrainian forces have hammered Russian refineries with coordinated long-range drone strikes.
The campaign has inflicted deep costs on Russia’s oil industry. It forced Moscow to put domestic needs over foreign profits, especially with a gasoline ban already running through July.
The structural damage is now showing up clearly in global trade data. Bloomberg reported that Russian oil processing fell sharply to an average of 4.69 million barrels a day in April.
According to data from the analytics firm OilX, that drop represents the lowest daily refining average the country has seen since December 2009. Production lines are stumbling.
A three-pronged issue
Novak publicly insisted that the government must protect local consumers first. He made it clear that keeping the domestic market stable remains the absolute top priority for his office.
Behind closed doors, officials are facing a brutal three-way dilemma. They have to supply the domestic public, fuel their ongoing military campaigns, and preserve vital export revenues all at once.
The Institute for the Study of War assesses that the Ukrainian strategy of targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure has proven effective at targeting Putin’s war chest, as the officials wouldn’t even consider imposing export restrictions if the Ukrainian campaign did not hurt the Russian economy.
Sources: Interfax, RBK, Bloomberg, OilX, The Institute for the Study of War
