Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The proposal is aimed at kicking the question of nuclear capabilities down the road.
How is the war between Iran, the US, and Israel actually going? Is one side winning, or is it a stalemate? When will oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz again, bringing an end to the skyrocketing prices on nearly everything?
With statements from the US and Iran being issued daily, often contradicting each other, it is difficult to know what is really going on. However, looking at the latest peace proposal issued by Iran to the US, it appears that the Iranian leadership does not accept an impending defeat.
In fact, it is quite the opposite.
No concessions and an end on Tehran’s terms
In a special report on the war in the Middle East, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that the most recent peace proposal from Iran is actually a sign that Iran believes it is winning the war against the US.
Officials familiar with the matter have told The Wall Street Journal that Tehran’s latest offer to end hostilities is essentially a victory lap.
The proposed agreement is broken down into three phases, starting with a demand for the United States and Israel to guarantee a permanent halt to the war.
Once that is secured, the second phase would require Washington to lift its blockade on Iranian ports, opening the door for talks about the Strait of Hormuz.
Only in the final phase would the conversation shift to Iran’s nuclear capabilities—an issue the country’s leadership is reportedly reluctant to discuss.
Holding the best cards
ISW assesses that the regime’s strategy reflects the highly confident mindset of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Ahmad Vahidi.
The major general appears to believe his country is winning the conflict, despite enduring heavy damage, and has instructed negotiators in Islamabad to keep nuclear talks off the table for now.
By securing an end to the war and the lifting of blockades first, the leadership in Tehran would have little reason to compromise on its nuclear ambitions later, ISW analysts suggest.
The two sides remain miles apart on the nuclear question, with Washington asking for a 20-year pause on enrichment, while Tehran recently offered a five-year suspension.
Western media reported that US President Donald Trump was unhappy with the revised April 26 framework because it ignored the nuclear issue entirely.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Western media, Fox News
