Kathrine Frich
Fighting in eastern Ukraine is intensifying as Russian forces push forward in key areas.
Military analysts say the latest escalation could mark the start of a broader seasonal campaign.
The timing has raised questions about how global conflicts and shifting alliances may be shaping Moscow’s strategy.
Offensive underway
Russia has launched a spring-summer offensive, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cited by O2.
Experts say activity has increased in recent days, particularly in eastern Ukraine.
Dr. Martinas Maluzinas of the Koszalin University of Technology told o2.pl that the main focus will be Donbas, including Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, as well as southern regions such as Zaporizhzhia.
Strategic goals
Maluzinas said the offensive is part of a broader plan to secure long-term objectives.
He argued that capturing Donbas is both militarily and politically important for the Kremlin, as it remains a key industrial region despite heavy destruction.
The expert added that the campaign could help boost morale inside Russia as the war continues to strain the economy.
Pressure on Ukraine
According to Maluzinas, the offensive is likely to stretch Ukrainian defenses by forcing Kyiv to move troops and resources across the front.
He said Russia is testing weak points while adapting to modern battlefield conditions and Western-supplied technology.
Ukraine, he noted, is expected to rely on defensive tactics, including fortifications and targeted strikes on logistics.
Global impact
The conflict in Iran could also influence the battlefield, the expert said.
While Russia may lose access to some military support, the wider crisis could reduce Western focus on Ukraine.
This shift may ease pressure on Russian forces and create economic advantages, particularly through rising energy prices.
Trump factor
Maluzinas also pointed to political dynamics in the United States.
He suggested that Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy could indirectly benefit Moscow, particularly if sanctions are weakened or cooperation increases.
“Donald Trump is supporting the Russian offensive. He’s becoming Vladimir Putin’s ‘useful idiot,’” he said.
Sources: o2.pl, Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
