Kathrine Frich
For generations, Russia has promised one thing on paper and done another on the ground.
From tsars to Soviet leaders to the modern Kremlin, agreements meant to guarantee borders or limit aggression have often been followed by violations that reshape entire regions.
As international efforts intensify to end the war in Ukraine, this long history weighs heavily on today’s diplomacy.
A review of past treaties shows a consistent pattern that stretches from imperial expansion to Putin’s recent invasions.
Imperial precedents
One of the earliest examples is the Treaty of Kuchuk Kainargi of 1774, signed with the Ottoman Empire after the Fifth Russo Turkish War.
The deal recognized the independence of the Crimean Khanate, but Digi24 notes that within a decade Russia installed a loyal ruler and annexed the peninsula in 1783, setting a precedent repeated again in 2014.
A similar pattern emerged after the Treaty of Tilsit in 1807. Although Russia pledged to join Napoleon’s blockade against Britain, it quietly reopened its ports to British trade by 1810 while taxing French goods.
This breach fed the tensions that led to Napoleon’s disastrous invasion of 1812.
The tendency resurfaced after the Crimean War. The 1856 Treaty of Paris, signed with France, Britain, Turkey and Sardinia, barred Russian warships from the Black Sea.
Yet in 1870, taking advantage of France’s defeat by Prussia, Russia unilaterally brought its fleet back, despite lacking the unanimous approval required to amend the treaty.
In East Asia, the Russo Japanese Protocols of 1896 and 1898 committed both sides to avoid interfering in Korea.
Digi24 reports that by 1903 and 1904, Russia had effectively taken control of the peninsula, helping trigger the Russo Japanese War and contributing to the tsarist empire’s collapse.
Soviet era breaches
After 1917, violations continued under Soviet rule.
The Treaty of Riga of 1921 set borders with Poland and promised reparations, cultural returns and repatriation rights.
According to Digi24, the Soviet authorities quickly blocked repatriation and refused reparations, leaving more than 1.5 million Poles in the USSR. Many later became victims of Stalin’s terror.
The Polish Soviet non aggression pact of 1932 was annulled in 1939 when Moscow secretly agreed with Nazi Germany to divide Poland under the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact. The USSR then invaded on September 17, claiming the Polish state had “ceased to exist.”
The Soviet Finnish non aggression pact, renewed in 1934, met the same fate. Soviet troops staged a border provocation in 1939, blamed Finland and launched a full invasion, later installing a puppet administration over seized territory.
Even agreements with allies were undone.
The 1945 Yalta Declaration guaranteed free elections in Poland, but Digi24 notes that Soviet backed authorities blocked opposition parties and falsified the first post war vote, cementing communist rule.
Modern federation, old habits
After the fall of the USSR, hopes for a treaty abiding Russia quickly faded.
Ukraine learned this first through the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, signed with Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom.
In exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal, Ukraine received assurances of sovereignty and protection from coercion.
Digi24 reports that Russia soon undermined the deal through energy pressure, then violated it outright by annexing Crimea in 2014 and supporting separatists in Donbas.
The 1997 Treaty of Friendship between Kyiv and Moscow met the same fate.
It affirmed borders and forbade the use of force, but Russia breached it by occupying Crimea and destabilizing eastern Ukraine. Ukraine formally ended the treaty in 2018.
Even narrower agreements were ignored. Under the 2003 Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait treaty, both states were guaranteed freedom of navigation.
After annexing Crimea, Russia treated the sea as its internal waters, carried out prolonged inspections, fired on Ukrainian vessels in 2018, and later restricted most commercial traffic on the grounds of military activity.
Invasion of georgia
Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia again illustrated its approach to binding commitments.
After attacking South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Moscow accepted a six point EU mediated ceasefire requiring a withdrawal to pre war positions. Russia did not implement the key provisions.
Instead, its forces remained, and Moscow later recognized the territories as independent states, a move condemned by most European governments.
These steps would later echo in the 2014 occupation of Crimea and the full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Why it matters today
This history now shapes the debate over United States efforts to negotiate an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
European governments warn that any peace plan offering concessions to Moscow risks repeating a cycle in which agreements are signed, violated and then used to justify further aggression.
The concern is heightened by the hybrid attacks Russia is carrying out across Europe, including cyber intrusions, sabotage, espionage and operations targeting critical infrastructure.
Last week President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to “declare in writing” that it had no intention of attacking Europe.
Given the long trail of broken commitments, few European leaders are willing to take such assurances at face value.
Sources: Digi24.
