Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Russian leader has painted himself into a corner.
Leaders who build their brand on pure strength face a unique trap.
Admitting a mistake becomes entirely impossible. Because of this, stepping away from a bitter fight often carries far more risk than simply dragging it out for another year.
The grinding conflict in Ukraine continues to chew through lives and resources, but the fight over Donbas actually began years before the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022.
A “main goal”
In 2014, Russia backed separatist fighters in Donetsk and Luhansk (the two oblasts in the Donbas region), and according to some sources, the Russian military was directly involved in helping the separatists fight against Ukrainian forces.
Just before the launch of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Putin recognised all of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent from Ukraine, even though only parts of the oblasts were under separatist control.
The Russian leader has even said capturing Donbas is a “main goal” for Russia.
But that specific goal remains frustratingly out of reach for his generals.
Mounting losses
According to Reuters, Russian forces have suffered massive casualties trying to take and hold these eastern territories, and the front lines barely move.
This failure places the Russian leader in an incredibly dangerous position. He cannot just call a sudden ceasefire and drag his battered, exhausted forces back across the border without facing serious consequences.
Putin has spent more than two decades crafting a highly specific public image. State media constantly portrays him as a master strategist and an almighty defender of the nation. He never loses.
A shattered illusion
Stopping the war without claiming the Donbas would instantly destroy that carefully built narrative. It would be a very public, undeniable admission of total defeat.
Several geopolitical analysts told multiple western news outlets that a retreat would change how ordinary citizens view their president.
The aura of invincibility would vanish overnight. People would suddenly realise the man at the top makes catastrophic errors.
Whispers of revolution
The domestic situation is a pressure cooker. Everyday Russians are now feeling the daily, crushing weight of severe international economic sanctions.
On top of that, families are dealing with the brutal reality of a military draft that pulls young men from their homes.
Citizens usually tolerate extreme hardship only if they believe a glorious victory is guaranteed. When the promise of success fades, patience disappears right along with it. They want results.
If Putin stops the fighting now, the public will demand to know why so much blood was spilled for absolutely nothing.
Observers suggest this sudden realisation could easily spark widespread unrest across the country.
The ensuing anger might even trigger a full revolution, which leaves the Kremlin with no choice but to keep feeding the war machine.
Sources: Reuters, BBC, The Moscow Times, Atlantic Council
