Kenneth Glad
A more public challenge to Washington is emerging as security, defense and trade disputes test old assumptions about US influence.
In an opinion and analysis piece for The Guardian, Mujtaba Rahman argues that Europe’s tougher approach to Donald Trump is being driven by practical changes in security and defense, not only by frustration with Washington.
Rahman is the managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, a political risk research and consulting firm. His work focuses on how elections, diplomacy and geopolitical disputes shape European decision-making.
Ukraine is one reason for the shift. Rahman writes that since March 2025, the US has stopped financing Kyiv, leaving the EU to take on most of the burden.
He notes that about 60% of Ukraine’s military hardware now comes from domestic production, while 20% comes from European suppliers. The US still plays an important role, especially in intelligence and air defense, but Europe is no longer as dependent on Washington as it once was.
Rahman also cites Sipri estimates showing that the US share of arms transfers to Europe fell from 64% in 2020-24 to 58% in 2021-25.
Merz speaks out
Friedrich Merz’s comments on Iran gave that shift a sharper public face.
According to The Guardian, The German chancellor told students in Marsberg that Iran had outplayed the Trump administration in stalled negotiations.
“The Iranians are obviously very skilled at negotiating, or rather, very skilful at not negotiating, letting the Americans travel to Islamabad and then leave again without any result,” Merz said.
He added: “An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards. And so I hope that this ends as quickly as possible.”
Rahman also places the episode within broader European concerns over Ukraine, Iran, Greenland and US political involvement in Hungary’s election, where Viktor Orbán was ultimately defeated.
Trade test ahead
Trade may become the next confrontation. Rahman argues that if Washington raises tariffs on European exports such as cars, the EU is likely to answer more firmly than it did in 2025.
He writes that EU member states have already approved possible retaliation covering 93 billion euros of US exports, though the European Commission may first leave room for talks.
Rahman argues that many European leaders now see Trump’s threats as less certain to become reality. With Trump unpopular among many European voters, pushing back against Washington may carry fewer political risks than staying quiet.
The alliance remains intact, but the tone has changed. Europe is no longer seeing patience as the only available strategy.
Sources: The Guardian
