Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Increasing military buildup along the Belarus–Ukraine border is sparking concern.
Putin and Lukashenko. Russia and Belarus.
It’s impossible to mention Belarus and its leader without also mentioning the counterparts in the East, and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) even assesses that Belarus has de facto been annexed by Russia – or is on the path of being so, at least.
Russia even used Balarusian territory to launch the invasion of Ukraine, and Russias military presence in Belarus is rapidly increasing, sparking fear that Belarus might be about to enter the war in Ukraine on the side of Russia.
But if that happens, it will be a costly decision by the leader, Lukashenko.
On the pencil
On Tuesday, May 26, the Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, announced that Kyiv has identified 500 specific targets inside Belarus to hit if Alexander Lukashenko officially joins the war.
The commander paired his warning with a direct insult aimed at the Belarusian leader. Writing on social media, Brovdi refused to hold back.
“To the Minsk gauleiter Lukashesku: a barking dog does not bite. A bird of prey is not like that. The first 500 targets are already on the pencil. Free and very practical advice: do not get in Ukraine’s eyes,” Brovdi posted. He also urged Ukrainian citizens to stay calm and listen to air raid sirens.
Watching the border
In early May, observers spotted unusual military movements near the shared border, prompting Lukashenko to announce a targeted mobilization plan to prepare his troops for potential combat.
The buildup quickly caught the attention of Ukrainian intelligence., with Ukrainian State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko revealing on May 4 that Belarus is actively building new training grounds and supply networks.
Demchenko explained that Russian forces could use these facilities at any moment. However, he noted that the current number of Russian soldiers in Belarus is still too small to start a new invasion. Even so, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered his generals on May 15 to build a strict defense plan.
Armed forces preparing
During a meeting with the Belarusian Defense Minister, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko revealed on May 12 that his army will soon call up specific fighting units.
This targeted mobilization officially aims to ready his troops for potential combat, Belarusian news agency BEITA reported.
Yet the authoritarian leader insists he wants peace. He frames the entire buildup as a simple safety measure.
“Then, as I promised, we will mobilize units in a targeted manner to prepare them for war. God willing, it can be avoided,” Lukashenko stated according to the agency.
The Russian daily newspaper Kommersant also published the remarks, highlighting the confusing mixed signals coming out of Minsk right now.
Sources: BELTA, Kommersant, United24Media, social media statements from Robert “Madyar” Brovdi
