Kathrine Frich
The Russian leader claimed his forces had captured most of the town of Lyman
When military campaigns stumble, the first casualty is usually the truth.
Facing growing pressure on the battlefield, the Russian government is pushing a dramatically different story to its public. But defense experts are calling the bluff.
Painting a perfect picture
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently sat down for a televised interview, claiming sweeping victories in Ukraine. He painted a picture of a relentless, unstoppable advance.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War reviewed his claims and found them completely out of touch with reality. In a harsh assessment, the think tank accused the Kremlin of deliberately hiding its failures.
The ISW report cited by WP concluded that Putin “continues to make highly exaggerated claims about Russian advances that do not reflect the realities of the battlefield, in order to build a narrative of ubiquitous Russian military success.”
Crunching the numbers
The Russian leader claimed his forces had captured most of the town of Lyman and 96 percent of Konstantynovka. Those towns are crucial pieces of the Donbas defense line.
But the data tells a vastly different story. The ISW determined that Russian troops only hold a presence in 4.3 percent of Lyman and about 37 percent of Konstantynovka.
Putin also claimed rapid daily progress in the Zaporizhzhia region. Yet, the American analysts estimate that Ukraine has actually liberated more than 400 square kilometers there since early 2026.
And the overall Russian advance is drastically slowing down. Experts calculated that Moscow captured an average of 3.79 square kilometers per day in June 2026, a massive drop from 16.65 square kilometers per day in August 2025.
Hiding the damage
There is a clear reason for the sudden burst of fictional victories. Analysts say Moscow is desperately trying to distract from a brutal series of Ukrainian drone strikes.
Recent Ukrainian attacks successfully crippled Russian fuel infrastructure, sparking severe shortages and market panic. In June, drones even struck the Moscow refinery.
Experts from the EUvsDisinfo project noted similar tactics. They pointed out that Russian state media is actively twisting the narrative around these strikes.
When Ukraine targeted military bases in Crimea, causing a massive fuel crisis, Kremlin outlets spun the story. The EU analysts reported that Russian media falsely claimed the attacks targeted civilians to drag NATO into the fight.
The strategy is clear. When the battlefield stalls, the propaganda machine kicks into high gear.
Sources: ISW, EUvsDisinfo
