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Several projects linked to the Russian military are not listed under the budget for defense.
Correction: A previous headline stated that the deficit was “magnitudes” larger than the Kremlin’s claims. This could be considered misleading and has therefore been changed to “far.” We apologize.
Russia may be spending far more on its military than official data suggests, according to new intelligence estimates from Germany.
According to Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Russia spent roughly €250 billion ($295 billion) on its military last year. The agency says the real figure is about 66% higher than what the Kremlin publicly reported.
The assessment was released on 4 February, the same day Russian and Ukrainian officials resumed negotiations in Abu Dhabi. The figures offer one of the clearest pictures yet of the true cost of Moscow’s war effort.
The BND said Russia’s accounting practices hide large portions of military spending by classifying them under civilian budget categories.
Hidden spending
Euromaidan Press reports that the agency said projects linked to the Defense Ministry, military IT programs and financial support for soldiers’ families are frequently recorded outside the defense budget.
This approach makes official military spending appear smaller than it actually is. The BND concluded that Russia’s accounting standards differ sharply from those used by NATO countries.
“In these figures, the growing threat to Europe from Russia is concretely materializing,” the BND stated.
The agency argues that Moscow’s official defense data is systematically distorted.
Rapid expansion
Russia’s military expenditure has increased dramatically since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
According to BND estimates, spending stood at about €78 billion in 2021. It rose to €106 billion in 2022 and €136 billion in 2023.
By 2024 the figure had reached €202 billion, and in 2025 the total climbed to roughly €250 billion.
Measured against economic output, defense spending rose from around 6% of GDP in 2022 to nearly 10% this year. NATO encourages member states to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense.
Europe on alert
German officials say the military buildup is not focused solely on the war in Ukraine.
The BND warned that significant resources are also being directed toward strengthening Russia’s military presence near NATO’s eastern border.
BND President Martin Jäger previously said Moscow aims to weaken NATO, destabilize European democracies and deepen divisions within their societies.
The scale of Russia’s rearmament has pushed parts of Europe to expand defense budgets, with Germany planning to significantly increase military spending in the coming years.
Sources: Bundesnachrichtendienst, Euromaidan Press, SIPRI
