Kenneth Glad
A pattern is emerging in the war’s long-range phase. Repeated strikes and mounting shortages are making it harder for either side to fully defend critical infrastructure, but recent developments suggest Russia is feeling that pressure more acutely. This is no longer a theoretical problem. It is now visible on the battlefield.
According to Wirtualna Polska, citing Estonia’s Ministry of Defence, Russia is struggling to keep pace with demand for air defense missiles, with stocks being used faster than they can be replaced.
Recent days have brought fewer direct clashes but more long-range attacks. Mud and limited cover are pushing both sides toward drones and missile strikes instead of maneuvering forces on the ground.
Air defense systems are complex and slow to produce. That imbalance is starting to show.
Protecting everything is no longer possible. Commanders are having to choose what matters most. Not always successfully.
Strike in Crimea
Ukraine’s strike in occupied Crimea adds to that pressure. Reporting by the Polish outlet indicates that Ukrainian forces hit targets near Libknechtivka, damaging key elements of an S-400 system.
The effect goes beyond visible destruction. When detection and coordination components are lost, interception capability drops sharply.
Replacing that capacity is not quick. As noted in the report, rebuilding such systems can take years.
The likely result is a reshuffling of defenses. Systems may be pulled from other regions, leaving gaps that did not exist before. Similar problems have appeared earlier in the war, but now they seem harder to manage.
Expanding capabilities
Ukraine, meanwhile, is developing ways to strike deeper. United24 writes that a domestically produced ballistic missile has already been tested in combat, hitting a target roughly 300 kilometers away.
The weapon carries a warhead of more than 400 kilograms and is expected to move toward broader production despite wartime constraints.
Accuracy has improved as well. Available reporting suggests modern guidance allows strikes to land within meters, even under electronic interference.
Speed remains a challenge for defenders. Estimates cited by Wirtualna Polska put interception success for systems like the S-300 and S-400 at around 30 percent against such missiles.
What stands out is where this is heading. Ukraine is steadily extending its reach, while Russia is being forced to stretch finite defenses across a growing list of military targets. That pressure is unlikely to ease soon.
Sources: Wirtualna Polska, United24
