Kathrine Frich
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly threatened other European countries.
Drone incursions, cyber activity and sabotage warnings have raised alarms across several countries.
At the same time, Kremlin-backed narratives have escalated.
State media and officials have issued frequent warnings about potential nuclear strikes, keeping tensions high across the continent.
Against this backdrop, intelligence agencies now warn that Moscow may be preparing new ways to pressure Europe even further.
New legal powers
Russia has introduced amendments that could allow President Vladimir Putin to deploy troops abroad under new conditions, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service and reported by Ukrinform.
The changes relate to laws on citizenship and defense. They would permit military action to “protect” Russian citizens detained or prosecuted by foreign courts.
Officials say the wording is deliberately broad and leaves room for interpretation.
Vague justification
Ukrainian intelligence warned that the lack of clear definitions could be used to justify future operations.
“In simpler terms, any verdict by any court that the Kremlin finds inconvenient can now serve as a formal pretext for a military operation abroad,” the agency said.
The proposal is framed as a response to what Russia calls “hostile actions” by foreign states, though no precise criteria are defined.
Baltic tensions
At the same time, intelligence reports point to renewed activity linked to Estonia.
A previously inactive social media channel known as the “Narva Republic” has reappeared, promoting claims about discrimination against Russian speakers and calling for autonomy in the border region of Ida-Virumaa.
The area lies close to Russia, raising sensitivity around the messaging.
Psychological pressure
Estonia’s Internal Security Service described the campaign as familiar and low-cost.
“Similar tactics have been used before – both in Estonia and in other countries. It is a simple way to provoke and intimidate society,” the statement said.
Analysts believe such efforts are designed to increase anxiety and test reactions within Baltic states.
Warnings exchanged
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna responded with a strong warning, saying any incursion would trigger a firm response.
He previously stated that if so-called “little green men” appeared, Estonia would act decisively.
Ukrainian intelligence said the timing of Russia’s actions appears symbolic, noting links to the anniversary of Crimea’s annexation and describing the approach as a continuation of hybrid warfare tactics.
Sources: Ukrinform, Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine
