Kenneth Glad
Washington is projecting confidence about its conflict with Iran. But comments from recent diplomatic meetings suggest a more cautious assessment behind closed doors. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has offered different expectations in public and private, underscoring how uncertain the situation remains.
After Friday’s G7 meeting in France, Rubio told reporters the war should end within “weeks, not months,” DR reports. His remarks suggested the administration believes the campaign is advancing quickly.
In private discussions, however, the tone appeared more measured. People familiar with the talks told Axios that Rubio indicated the conflict could last another two to four weeks.
The difference reflects how uncertain the timeline remains, particularly as fighting continues and negotiations have yet to take shape.
Fragile communication
Diplomatic contact between Washington and Tehran is still indirect. The U.S. is waiting for a response to a 15-point proposal delivered through Pakistan, which has previously acted as a discreet intermediary during periods of tension.
“We have not received a response yet,” Rubio said, according to DR. He added there are signs of engagement from parts of Iran’s leadership, which he suggested has been weakened by the ongoing conflict.
Axios reports that communication has been slowed by security concerns. Iranian officials are limiting phone use to avoid detection, making it harder for mediators to relay messages.
Even where there is interest in talks, authority appears concentrated at the top, leaving negotiations stalled for now.
Pressure and positioning
Military planning continues alongside diplomatic efforts. Reports from The Wall Street Journal said the Pentagon has explored sending thousands more ground troops, though no decision has been confirmed.
Rubio rejected that option, saying, “We are ahead of schedule and can do this without ground troops.”
At the same time, Axios writes that additional U.S. forces have been positioned in the region in recent days, keeping escalation options available if talks fail.
Rubio also pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as a key concern. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes through the narrow route, making it a critical point for international markets. He suggested allied naval patrols may be needed after the war to ensure free movement.
If diplomacy breaks down, the next phase could involve intensified military action or tighter economic pressure. For now, neither track has produced a decisive shift.
Sources: DR, Axios, Wall Street Journal
