August M
As the war in Ukraine drags into another year, questions are growing over how long Russia can sustain its military campaign. Behind the front lines, a complex picture is emerging.
New analysis suggests the answer is not as simple as many assume.
According to the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Russia is still managing to replace its battlefield losses, even as casualties mount. While some estimates have claimed losses exceeding one million troops, the report argues such figures are often misleading or inflated.
Instead, the focus should be on “irrecoverable losses” — those killed, missing, or permanently unfit for service.
Mounting losses
Using open-source data such as death records and obituaries, independent researchers estimate that around 220,000 Russian soldiers had been confirmed killed by mid-2025.
Separate name-based tracking projects have identified more than 168,000 individuals by early 2026.
The report suggests total deaths likely remain below 400,000, though the number of missing troops could reach around 180,000, many of whom are believed to be dead.
Daily fatalities have also risen, from roughly 240 per day in 2024 to about 390 in 2025.
Steady recruitment
Despite these losses, Russia continues to bring in new soldiers at a steady pace.
The report estimates 30,000 to 40,000 recruits are signing contracts each month, roughly matching or exceeding battlefield losses.
However, attracting new recruits is becoming increasingly expensive. Regional governments are raising enlistment bonuses, placing growing strain on local budgets.
The system is still functioning, but relies heavily on financial incentives.
Quality concerns
A key issue is not just the number of recruits, but their capabilities.
According to the analysis, many new soldiers come from disadvantaged backgrounds, including the unemployed and prisoners, raising concerns about training and effectiveness.
Modern warfare, particularly with the growing role of drones, requires more skilled personnel. Russia has launched targeted recruitment campaigns for drone operators, offering better conditions such as limited service terms.
Limits ahead
The report concludes that while Russia can sustain current levels of fighting, it has limited capacity to expand its military further.
Even a new wave of mobilization would face constraints, including shortages of equipment and trained officers.
For now, the existing recruitment system is holding, but its long-term sustainability remains uncertain.
Sources: Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
