Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The Russian military is also changing its tactics, now conducting “human safari” on civilian Ukrainians, ISW reports.
Over the past decade, NATO has invested heavily in reinforcing its eastern flank to deter possible Russian aggression in the future.
The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 showed that deterrence is key to protecting the eastern flank of the alliance, as Russia (read: Vladimir Putin) does not care about international laws and borders.
The three Baltic nations of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia are all former Soviet republics, and in Latvia alone, roughly 24% of the population consists of ethnic Russians.
Increasing online campaigns of misinformation and pro-Russian sentiment have sparked fears that a Russian military operation might be in the making, and according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is setting conditions for such a scenario.
Laying the groundwork for aggression
In its April 8 update on the war in Ukraine, ISW notes that Russia’s Foreign Ministry has issued a warning to Baltic nations over what it claims is their role in Ukrainian drone activity.
Spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on April 7 that Moscow could take “retaliatory measures” if these countries allow drones to operate in their airspace.
Russian lawmakers echoed the message, accusing Baltic governments of being “complicit” in strikes on Russian territory.
According to statements reported by the ISW, officials suggested Russian forces may target drones over Baltic airspace and even consider blockades.
The analysts say such rhetoric may be laying the groundwork for potential military moves beyond Ukraine, particularly in contested airspace near NATO members.
Civilian toll rises
Meanwhile, Ukrainian authorities report continued deadly strikes on civilian targets in the south. Dnipropetrovsk regional official Oleksandr Hanzha said Russian drone attacks on April 7 hit buses in Nikopol and nearby areas, killing several civilians and injuring dozens.
These incidents follow a pattern. ISW reported that Russian forces have repeatedly targeted civilian locations in the region, including a market strike days earlier that caused multiple casualties.
The think tank describes the tactic as “human safari,” alleging deliberate use of drones to hunt civilian targets and disrupt daily life.
Such actions, analysts say, differ from traditional military air operations and may constitute violations of international law.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian officials
