Kathrine Frich
Russia’s war against Ukraine began long before the full-scale invasion.
After annexing Crimea in 2014, Moscow steadily escalated tensions before launching a wider assault years later.
Now, more than four years into the conflict, the fighting continues with no clear path toward peace.
Some analysts believe that may be because Putin’s true reasons for the war are different from what many assume.
Deeper causes
In an interview reported by Ziare.com, political analyst Dr. Taras Kuzio said many Western leaders misunderstand what Vladimir Putin means when he speaks about the “root causes” of the war.
According to Kuzio, these demands go beyond security concerns and instead point to a broader objective.
He argues that Russia ultimately seeks to turn Ukraine into a state similar to Belarus, aligned politically and culturally with Moscow.
Clashing visions
Kuzio explained that this would require Ukraine to abandon its European ambitions and accept Russian influence over language, religion and historical identity.
Such conditions, he said, are unacceptable to Ukrainians, making any compromise extremely difficult.
This fundamental divide is one of the main reasons why negotiations have struggled to produce results.
Doubts over peace
The professor described the current peace process as ineffective, suggesting that neither side is genuinely moving toward a settlement.
He also criticized what he sees as an imbalance in international pressure, with Ukraine facing more demands than Russia.
According to Kuzio, a lack of understanding among negotiators further complicates efforts to reach an agreement.
Unanswered question
Kuzio pointed to a key issue that remains unresolved. “It is a million-dollar question, because nobody has the answer.”
He said the challenge lies in how to design security guarantees strong enough to prevent future aggression.
Without such assurances, any ceasefire risks becoming temporary.
Uncertain outlook
The expert also expressed skepticism about trust between the parties, noting Ukraine’s past experiences with broken security commitments.
At the same time, he suggested that Russia may eventually be forced to negotiate if conditions on the battlefield worsen.
However, he warned that decision-making in Moscow could be affected by limited or distorted information reaching the Kremlin leadership.
Sources: Ziare.com, ICDS
