Kenneth Glad
Russia’s agricultural export mix is shifting. Grain still leads, but it no longer dominates as it did just a year ago.
Data from the Agroexport federal center, cited by Interfax, shows grain accounted for 27% of export value in 2025, down from 37% in 2024. That’s a sharp drop in relative terms—even if overall grain shipments have not collapsed.
What stands out is everything else moving faster.
Other categories are steadily taking a larger share. Agroexport data shows oil and fat products now account for 22% of export value, while food industry goods and fish and seafood have each reached 14%. A few years ago, those segments were much further behind grain.
This shift has been building for some time. Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut has previously said Russia aims to reduce grain’s share to around 25% by 2030. “Exports are increasingly focusing on supplies of high value-added products,” she said, according to Interfax.
Recent trade figures back that direction—at least in part. Agroexport’s review indicates that meat and dairy exports have grown at an average annual rate of more than 14% over the past five years. Oils and fats have also expanded steadily, while processed food products have shown slower but consistent growth.
Grain tells a different story. Based on the same dataset, exports have been broadly flat over that period, edging slightly lower on average.
Fast-growing niches and expanding reach
Some of the strongest gains are coming from smaller categories. Agroexport highlights sharp increases in shipments of lamb, live animals, sunflower seeds, sugar, and pork by-products. These are not the backbone of exports yet, but they are growing quickly.
In total, Russia exported agricultural goods worth about $41.6 billion in 2025, according to Agroexport estimates. The Federal Customs Service reports a slightly lower figure, largely because it excludes certain categories – such as seafood caught outside Russia’s customs zone – that Agroexport includes. Export volumes reached 83.3 million tonnes.
Demand remains geographically broad. As Agroexport notes, Russia supplied agricultural products to more than 170 countries last year. China remained the largest buyer at $7.7 billion, followed by Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt.
Export activity is also concentrated within Russia itself. Agroexport data shows that a relatively small group of regions – including Moscow and the Rostov region – accounts for the majority of export value, reflecting their established role in trade flows.
Why grain’s share is falling
There isn’t a single explanation for the drop in grain’s share, and the data allows for different interpretations.
One possibility is straightforward: Other categories are expanding faster, making grain look smaller in relative terms. Another factor may be domestic demand. Some analysts suggest Russia could be retaining more grain for internal use, which would naturally limit export growth even if production remains strong.
There is also the issue of margins. Processed goods and animal products tend to generate higher returns than raw grain exports. That creates an incentive to shift toward products further up the value chain – a pattern seen in other major agricultural exporters as well.
Still, the situation is not entirely clear-cut. Grain remains central to Russia’s export profile, and global demand for it is still significant. But the balance is changing.
For importing countries, that shift could matter over time. If a larger share of Russian production is directed toward domestic use or higher-value exports, the availability of grain on global markets may become tighter – especially during periods of strong demand.
Sources: Interfax, Agroexport Federal Center
