Kathrine Frich
Global oil markets have been under intense pressure in recent weeks, as geopolitical tensions disrupt supply and send prices soaring.
Sanctions on Russian energy exports and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for around a fifth of the world’s oil, have left traders navigating an increasingly volatile landscape.
Against this backdrop of uncertainty, a sudden burst of activity caught the attention of investors.
Sudden market moves
According to the Financial Times, cited by Digi24, around $580 million worth of oil futures were traded shortly before Donald Trump posted about negotiations with Iran.
The transactions took place within a narrow window, with roughly 6,200 Brent and WTI contracts changing hands between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. New York time.
Just minutes later, at 7:04 a.m., Trump wrote on Truth Social about “productive discussions” with Tehran, triggering a drop in oil prices and wider market volatility.
Timing questioned
The proximity between the trades and the announcement has prompted speculation among market observers.
“It’s difficult to prove causality, but we have to ask who would have been relatively aggressive in selling futures at that time, 15 minutes before Trump’s post,” a strategist at a US brokerage firm said.
At this stage, it remains unclear who carried out the trades or whether multiple parties were involved.
Growing concerns
The White House has rejected any suggestion of wrongdoing, but some investors say the episode fits a broader pattern.
Several hedge funds have pointed to repeated instances of large trades occurring ahead of major US policy announcements in recent months.
“From (his) experience in the markets over the last 25 years, this is really abnormal; someone just got considerably richer,” one portfolio manager said.
Analysts note that even if the trades were not coordinated, the combination of heavy volumes and unexpected political news amplified price swings.
Conflicting signals
Adding to the uncertainty, Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf denied that negotiations with Washington were taking place.
“Fake news is being used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and to escape the quagmire in which the United States and Israel are trapped,” he said.
The contradiction has further fueled debate about whether markets reacted to genuine developments or misleading signals.
Sources: Financial Times, Digi24.
