Camilla Jessen
For Vladimir Putin, a handshake with Donald Trump might mean more than any battlefield win.
Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he wants a meeting with Donald Trump.
For the Kremlin, this is not just about diplomacy. It’s a chance to shift the course of the war in Ukraine without further escalation on the battlefield.
Putin’s Interest in Trump Goes Beyond Optics
Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
While Russia continues its military campaign, analysts believe Putin sees a political deal with Trump as a more efficient way to secure his long-term strategic goals.
These goals, according to Kremlin-linked voices, are less about land and more about reshaping Ukraine’s future and weakening Western influence in the region.
Keeping Trump in Play as a Strategic Asset
Putin’s public statements show a deliberate openness toward future dialogue with Trump.
“It is probably better for us to meet and calmly talk about all the topics that are in the interests of the United States and Russia,” he said in January, as cited by Digi24.
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst, explained the rationale: “Putin wants to keep Trump as a resource for a possible transition to peace. Russia needs Trump to impose its conditions.”
Putin’s Real Focus: NATO, Not Just Territory
Despite Russia’s high-profile annexation of four Ukrainian regions in 2022, analysts believe the true priority for Putin lies in keeping Ukraine out of NATO.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Putin is more concerned about Ukraine’s political and military alignment than about physical borders.
“The most important thing for Putin is NATO and these firm guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO,” she explained.
For Putin, this means either a neutral Ukraine backed by Western assurances or a government in Kyiv more friendly to Moscow.
Territory Can Be Negotiated
Russia’s vague and shifting definitions of the borders it claims in occupied Ukraine may not be accidental. Analysts say this gives Putin room to maneuver in negotiations.
Stanovaya noted that territorial demands may be softened if Russia can achieve its broader objectives.
“Either he achieves this through NATO guarantees… or through political control exercised in Ukraine,” she said. “Then we’ll see what happens. Territory is much less important.”
This flexibility could make negotiations more feasible, especially if they’re framed around larger geopolitical outcomes.
The Witkoff Visit
The visit of Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, to Moscow raised new speculation about backchannel discussions.
While few details were released, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov confirmed that Putin had delivered “signals” related to Ukraine.
Whether those signals included territorial compromises or other concessions remains unclear.
Why Putin Is Betting on Trump Over Biden
Putin appears to view Trump not just as a sympathetic figure, but as someone who might be open to reshaping the Western consensus on Ukraine.
Trump’s criticism of NATO and U.S. foreign entanglements, combined with a track record of unconventional diplomacy, may offer Putin a rare chance to bargain from strength.
According to a European diplomat quoted by The Moscow Times, “If Trump is re-elected, Putin sees a unique chance to cement Russia’s security priorities in a formal agreement. That’s why he’s not burning the bridge—not yet.”
Peace Negotiations on Putin’s Terms
In the Kremlin’s view, ending the war is about more than just military gains.
It’s about reasserting Russia’s influence over Ukraine’s future and ensuring it doesn’t become a permanent Western outpost.
Whether Trump would agree to those terms remains to be seen.
