Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The increase in Ukrainian drone usage is likely a main reason for the stalling of Russian operations.
A shift is emerging on the front lines of the war in Ukraine, where new technology is beginning to alter the pace and direction of combat.
Recent battlefield reporting suggests Ukraine is gaining a crucial advantage, as March saw the highest number of Russian casualties of the war so far.
The most notable development, however, is that 96% of the casualties were inflicted by Ukrainian UAVs—a 29% increase compared to February.
Ukraine seems to have gained the upper hand in the use of drones in war, and now the Russians even seem to be acknowledging it.
Rising drone use
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian forces have intensified mid-range drone strikes since late 2025, targeting Russian logistics, equipment, and personnel. The pace of these operations increased sharply in early 2026.
ISW reported 41 such strikes in January, 61 in February, and 115 in March. Many of these attacks focused on Russian positions in eastern and southern Ukraine, including areas near occupied Donetsk City.
The think tank assessed that these operations have slowed Russian advances and disrupted preparations for a planned spring-summer offensive.
Battlefield impact
Russian pro-war commentators have acknowledged Ukraine’s effectiveness in using drones for battlefield air interdiction, according to ISW.
These tactics are believed to have contributed to higher Russian casualties in early 2026 compared with the previous year.
According to the think tank, one Russian military blogger claimed Ukrainian units deployed 300 to 400 drones simultaneously in a recent operation near the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, targeting positions up to 20 kilometers deep.
Narrative challenged
Russian officials have repeatedly suggested that Ukraine’s front lines are close to collapse, a claim widely disputed by recent battlefield developments.
ISW assessed that Ukraine’s drone innovations are producing tactical and strategic effects that undermine this narrative.
The report also highlighted the role of Ukraine’s domestic drone industry, supported in part by Western partners, in driving these advancements.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ministry of Defence of Ukraine
