Asger Risom
Iran has offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the US remains unmoved, casting doubt on prospects for a deal to end the conflict.
Hopes for a breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz are fading as a new Iranian proposal meets firm resistance from Washington.
Despite renewed diplomatic efforts, both sides remain far apart on how — and when — the conflict should end.
A deal with conditions
Iran has offered a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire, while postponing nuclear negotiations to a later stage, Axios reported, citing US officials and sources familiar with the talks.
The proposal, delivered via Pakistan, would allow shipping to resume first, with broader talks only beginning afterward. It also envisions a long-term ceasefire or even a permanent end to hostilities.
That sequencing appears to be the sticking point. The Trump administration has insisted any deal must address Iran’s nuclear program from the outset, not in a later phase.
Washington holds firm
President Donald Trump has made clear he is in no rush to accept partial terms.
“We have all the cards,” he told Fox News, stressing that securing Iran’s enriched uranium remains a central objective.
US officials have also rejected Iran’s framing of reopening the Strait. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned against any arrangement that would give Tehran control over access to the waterway.
“That’s not opening the Straits,” Rubio said. “Those are international waterways.”
Blockade pressure builds
At the core of the standoff is the US blockade, designed to choke off Iran’s oil exports.
Washington is betting that sustained pressure on Iran’s energy infrastructure will force broader concessions.
Trump has suggested the strain could soon trigger failures in Iran’s oil system, but analysts are more cautious. Satellite imagery shows oil loading continuing at key hubs such as Kharg Island, indicating operations are still ongoing.
At the same time, alternative export routes — including rail shipments toward China — are being explored, though they are far less efficient.
Talks losing momentum
Diplomatic efforts have stalled in recent days.
A planned US delegation visit to Pakistan was scrapped after Iran declined to attend, underscoring the lack of direct engagement.
Iranian officials accuse Washington of shifting demands, while US officials argue Tehran is not negotiating seriously.
Wider impact grows
The standoff is already affecting global markets.
Shipping traffic through the Strait has dropped sharply, and oil prices are climbing amid uncertainty.
In the United States, fuel prices are rising, with analysts warning that prolonged disruption could push them higher in the weeks ahead.
For now, neither side appears ready to compromise, leaving prospects for a deal increasingly uncertain.
Sources: The War Zone, Axios, Bloomberg, CBS News
