Nicolai Haugsted
Released documents paint a terrifying picture of what could happen between China and US.
Military planners, diplomats and defence chiefs are heading into one of Asia’s most important security summits under a growing shadow: fears that a future conflict over Taiwan could spiral far beyond conventional warfare.
According to Reuters, Fresh analysis released ahead of this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore warns that a military clash between the United States and China carries a genuine risk of nuclear escalation.
Report comes from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based defence think tank that describes the Asia-Pacific region as the new centre of a rapidly intensifying global arms race.
Taiwan Seen as Flashpoint
Researchers warn that both Washington and Beijing would likely launch massive operations targeting each other’s communication systems, surveillance networks and command infrastructure if war erupted around Taiwan.
“Conflict with China would risk escalation, potentially to a nuclear level, given the strategic importance of Taiwan to Beijing,” the report states.
Analysts also expressed concern over the apparent lack of crisis-management mechanisms between the world’s two largest military powers.
“There is currently little public evidence to suggest that both militaries understand the necessary guard rails to prevent, or rules of engagement that would restrict, both sides potentially targeting each other’s key command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes,” the assessment says.
“The prospect of nuclear escalation will thus continue to loom large in a major U.S.-China conflict.”
“Guard Rails” Are Missing
Concern among defence experts partly centres on communication — or lack thereof.
Cold War-era arms control talks between the United States and Soviet Union created decades of direct dialogue surrounding nuclear risk reduction.
Researchers say nothing comparable currently exists between Washington and Beijing.
“That culture of discussion is just not there at the moment so there’s far less to build on in that relationship,” IISS senior fellow Daniel Salisbury said during a press conference.
Salisbury also noted that many parts of China’s nuclear programme remain highly secretive, making negotiations even more complicated.
Nuclear Expansion Accelerates Across Asia
Assessment argues the wider Asia-Pacific region is entering a dangerous phase where multiple countries are increasing both nuclear and long-range strike capabilities.
“Regional states and those with strategic interests are expanding their nuclear arsenals, while non-nuclear weapons states pursue long-range conventional-strike capabilities: both challenging strategic stability,” the report states.
US officials believe China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other major power.
Pentagon estimates suggest Beijing could possess around 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.
Federation of American Scientists currently estimates Russia holds roughly 4,400 active warheads, while the United States maintains around 3,700. China is estimated to possess approximately 620.
Taiwan Watching Closely After Trump-Xi Summit
Security anxieties have intensified following a recent summit between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing earlier this month.
Meeting reportedly sparked concern inside Taiwan over how firmly Washington would support the island during a future military confrontation.
China has steadily increased military pressure around Taiwan in recent years and has never ruled out using force to take control of the island.
Taiwan’s government continues rejecting Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to speak during the Singapore summit this weekend, while China has not yet confirmed whether Defence Minister Dong Jun will attend.
Behind the polished speeches and diplomatic handshakes, nuclear fears are quietly dominating conversations before the conference has even begun.
