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The recruitment numbers are going down despite record signing bonuses.
A new analysis points to mounting strain on Russia’s military recruitment efforts.
As losses increase, fresh data indicates fewer volunteers are joining the ranks despite rising financial incentives.
And according to an open-source assessment cited by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), recruitment trends are moving in the opposite direction of battlefield needs.
Declining numbers
Economist Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs reported on April 12 , that Russia recruited between 800 and 1,000 soldiers daily in the first quarter of 2026.
That marks a drop from 1,000 to 1,200 per day during the same period in 2025, representing a roughly 20 percent year-on-year decline.
Kluge also found that even record signing bonuses, averaging 1.47 million rubles in March 2026, failed to reverse the slowdown.
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Rising losses
Using Russian Finance Ministry data, Kluge estimated that compensation was paid to families of about 25,000 soldiers killed in early 2026.
This compares with roughly 20,000 deaths in the first quarter of 2025 and nearly 10,000 in 2024, suggesting a sharp increase in casualties.
The ISW noted it could not independently verify the figures but said they align with broader indicators of manpower strain.
Mounting pressure
Ukraine’s “I Want to Live” initiative reported that Russia recruited about 940 soldiers per day, totaling around 80,456 in the first three months of 2026.
This falls short of the 1,100 to 1,150 daily recruits needed to meet the annual target of 409,000 contract soldiers.
Ukrainian data also indicates Russian casualties reached approximately 85,290 over the same period, exceeding recruitment.
Expanding efforts
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on April 10 that Russia may be deploying strategic reserves to offset losses and Ukrainian counterattacks.
Meanwhile, reports indicate at least 12 Russian regions increased bonuses by up to 80 percent since mid-February.
ISW also observed intensified covert mobilization efforts targeting businesses and universities.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Ukrainian officials
