Kenneth Glad
Public opinion is shifting as pressure abroad collides with worries at home. Many voters want stronger protection, but remain wary of decisions that could deepen economic strain.
A new poll shows that Europeans are weighing defence policy alongside inflation, energy bills and pressure on public services.
The survey, conducted in May 2026 among 19,481 adults in 15 countries, was analysed by Jana Kobzová and Paweł Zerka for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). The report reflects the authors’ views, not necessarily a collective ECFR position.
Its central finding is that voters are more open to European self-reliance, while still cautious about the costs. Defence, Ukraine and energy policy are being judged by whether they make the continent safer without making everyday life harder.
Russian energy remains politically unpopular
Energy is one of the clearest examples. Even with prices under pressure, most respondents opposed returning to Russian fossil-fuel imports.
Majorities in most surveyed countries preferred more European renewable and domestic energy production.
Support for renewed Russian oil and gas purchases was strongest in Bulgaria, Hungary and Italy, and among some radical-right electorates elsewhere.
That finding matters beyond energy policy. It suggests voters have not forgotten the risks of dependence on Moscow, even as they question how much more disruption they can absorb.
Ukraine support has clear limits
Ukraine still receives broad sympathy across much of Europe. In many countries, respondents viewed Kyiv as either an ally or a necessary partner.
Yet support weakens when the issue shifts from solidarity to direct commitments. Sending troops to Ukraine after a peace settlement was unpopular in several key countries, including Germany, France and Poland.
There was also no clear consensus for Ukrainian EU membership “in the current context.” That makes enlargement politically sensitive, especially when opponents can link it to public fears about war, spending and migration.
Trust in Washington has fallen
The United States remains important to Europeans, but confidence has weakened sharply. Only 11 percent of respondents called the US an ally, while 50 percent described it as a “necessary partner.” Another 25 percent saw it as a rival or adversary.
Even so, most Europeans are not calling for NATO to be replaced by a Europe-only defence structure. The more common view is practical: Europe should spend more, buy more of its own equipment and reduce dependence on Washington.
The report found support in several countries for common European borrowing to fund defence. But when military investment is presented as a trade-off against other public spending, voters become more divided.
The ECFR authors argue that European leaders have public support for firmer action, but only if they handle the economic consequences carefully.
Elections, price shocks and populist campaigns could still weaken backing for a more self-reliant Europe. The poll’s warning is that governments may have enough consent to act now, but not enough to postpone the argument indefinitely.
Sources: European Council on Foreign Relations poll/report by Jana Kobzová and Paweł Zerka.
