Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
If things spiral out of control, risk is that the US would be dragged in.
If things spiral out of control, risk is that the US would be dragged in.
What is happening?
Israel has launched an unprecedented attack on Iranian nuclear facilites and military headquarters.
At least 20 people is reported dead, including a number og high ranking Iranian military officers.
Why did Israel do it?
Ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the relationship between Iran and Israel has deteriorated, the Iranian leader calling Israel “a fatal cancer” and Israel has long been lobbying against the Iranian nuclear programme.
Iran insists the nuclear programme is meant for peaceful purposes.
Iran retaliates
Iran has retaliated to the attack by sending more than 100 drones against Israel.
But with Israeli PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, telling the Israeli population, that the operation in Iran will take “as long as needed”, fear is, things could spiral out of control and start a major conflict.
Risk 1: Iranian leadership crippled
Israels attack has exposed the Iranian leadership as being unable to protect the country and the population. This will put the leadership under strong, domestic pressure.
The risk is that the Iranian leadership might want to show decisiveness and strength by launching a full-scale war against Israel.
Risk 2: Axis of Resistance
Iran oversees what is known as the “Axis of Resistance” across the region. It includes loyal proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis as well as other milita groups.
If Iran decides to call for the militas’ aid, it could make fighting break out all across the region.
Risk 3: Netanyahu going solo
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of the threat, Iran poses to the region in the eyes of Israel, and he has tried to get US on board a military intervention against Irans nuclear programme.
Fridays attack happened without US support, showing that Netanyahu is now ready to make moves on his own, which means the US won’t as easily be able to force Israel into holding back.
Risk 4: Unprecendented territory
Israel and Iran have fought before, but the Israeli strike at the heart of Iran’s nuclear programme is unprecedented.
Iranian leadership has declared that the country is now “under existential threat”, meaning there’s no telling how the Iranian leaderhip will retaliate.
Risk 5: Militas deciding to take action
Widespread condemnation has emerged from leaders of Muslim Middle Eastern Countries, but there is very little risk that any soverign nation would engage in fighting as it is.
But if non-sovereign groups like underground militas decide to go rogue and attack Israel as retaliation, maybe without even telling Iran, things could really quickly get out of hand.