Kathrine Frich
Ukraine has been fighting not only on the battlefield but also in the financial arena, aiming to weaken Russia’s ability to sustain the war.
But shifting global events and political decisions may now be reshaping that strategy.
Rising oil prices and changes in U.S. policy are giving Moscow renewed economic strength at a critical moment in the conflict.
Cost of war
According to The Independent cited by Digi24, Kyiv’s strategy has focused on making the war too expensive for Russia to continue. Ukrainian officials estimate that if Moscow suffers heavy enough losses, the financial burden of replacing troops could become unsustainable.
Ukraine believes Russia can recruit around 35,000 to 37,000 soldiers each month, using high salaries and large compensation payments. Covering deaths and recruitment could cost Moscow roughly $6.6 billion monthly.
The goal, analysts say, is not to outmatch Russia in manpower but to drain its resources.
Oil lifeline
That calculation has been disrupted by rising global oil prices and the easing of some U.S. restrictions on Russian energy exports.
According to reporting cited by The Independent, Russia has gained an additional $6 billion to $10 billion in oil revenue since the escalation involving Iran. Exports have also increased, particularly to countries such as China, India and Turkey.
These revenues now exceed the monthly costs associated with troop losses, providing Moscow with a financial buffer.
Tipping point
Analysts argue that Russia’s breaking point will come not from a lack of soldiers, but from a lack of money.
“The critical point for Russia is not when it runs out of people, but when it runs out of money to buy people,” one analysis cited by The Independent states.
Before the recent surge in oil income, Ukraine estimated that sustained losses of around 50,000 Russian troops per month could trigger a “systemic collapse” in Russia’s war effort.
Political friction
Ukrainian officials have criticized Washington’s approach, warning that easing pressure on Russia could prolong the conflict.
“It’s like giving a murderer more bullets. For Russia, oil and gas are weapons,” said Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed Ukrainian offers to assist with countering drone threats in the Middle East, saying: “We don’t need help with drone defense. We know more about drones than anyone else. We have the best drones in the world.”
Sources: The Independent, Digi24.
