Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
At that rate of loss, Russia would lose more than two million soldiers taking the rest of the region.
“A Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.”
That is the narrative promoted by the Kremlin over and over again, especially leading up to peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US.
It is safe to say that the Kremlin narrative is a very subjective observation, as Russia has now lost more than 1.3 million soldiers during the war in Ukraine, with more than 35,000 casualties in March alone.
Reports circulating in late February suggested Russia demanded Kyiv surrender the entire Donetsk region as a condition for a ceasefire.
Ukrainian authorities have rejected the idea, noting they still hold roughly a quarter of the territory, including four key fortified cities.
According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces have made little progress in the region over the past six months and have even lost ground in some areas.
And when looking at the numbers, Putin would lose an additional two million soldiers just to take the rest of the region.
Heavy losses mount
In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa said that the Russian losses in Donetsk are astounding.
“As of now, for one occupied square kilometer in the Donetsk region, they have 316 killed and wounded,” he told the outlet.
For comparison, the estimated Russian casualties per square kilometer gained in Donetsk in 2025 were 160, meaning the losses have doubled.
Limited progress
Despite sustained operations, Russian forces have not secured meaningful tactical gains in Donetsk, Ukrainian officials said.
The region remains heavily defended, with an estimated 6,000 to 7,000 square kilometres still outside Russian control.
If you multiply those numbers by the 316 soldiers lost per square kilometre, the losses would amount to between 1.9 and 2.2 million.
Ahead lie major urban centres including Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka, which form a defensive line. Russian troops have only approached the outskirts of Kostiantynivka without entering the city.
Attempts to advance using small infiltration groups have largely failed, according to Ukrainian accounts.
Defensive resilience
Ukrainian officials point to other fronts as evidence of their defensive strength. In Pokrovsk, fighting has continued for over 20 months, with Russian forces unable to secure full control.
Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv region, has been largely recaptured by Ukrainian forces, including surrounding areas.
Ukraine also reported repelling early assaults in Russia’s spring offensive, claiming more than 5,000 Russian troops were killed or wounded within days.
Officials argue that the scale of losses highlights the difficulty Russia faces in advancing and explains why Moscow may seek territorial concessions through negotiations rather than continued fighting.
Sources: Ukrainian Presidential Office statements, United24Media, RBC-Ukraine, Ministry of Defence of Ukraine
