Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The USA is not one of the countries meeting the new target.
The heads of state of the NATO alliance are currently at a summit in Ankara, Turkey, to review the progress made since the 2025 summit and create a roadmap for achieving key NATO objectives.
At the 2025 summit, the members pledged to increase their defense spending to 3.5%, up from the previous goal of 2%. So how is that going?
Well, according to new estimates from NATO itself, only five countries are expected to meet the new goal in 2026.
Baltics show the way
According to NATO’s estimates, the country set to spend the largest share of its GDP on defense is Lithuania, with an expected 5.33% of its GDP allocated to core defense expenditure.
Second on the list is another Baltic state, Estonia, which is estimated to spend 5.10% of its GDP.
The third Baltic state, Latvia, ranks third with an estimated 4.92% of its GDP.
The final two countries expected to meet the 2025 target are Poland (4.68%) and Greece (3.65%).
The complete list
According to NATO’s estimates, the 32 alliance members’ projected spending on core defense is as follows:
- Lithuania: 5.33%
- Estonia: 5.10%
- Latvia: 4.92%
- Poland: 4.68%
- Greece: 3.65%
- Denmark: 3.49%
- Sweden: 3.22%
- Norway: 3.17%
- United States: 3.17%
- Turkey: 2.85%
- Germany: 2.69%
- Finland: 2.65%
- Netherlands: 2.58%
- United Kingdom: 2.56%
- Romania: 2.43%
- Bulgaria: 2.22%
- France: 2.22%
- Montenegro: 2.17%
- Albania: 2.15%
- Canada: 2.13%
- Italy: 2.10%
- Portugal: 2.10%
- Hungary: 2.09%
- North Macedonia: 2.09%
- Croatia: 2.03%
- Luxembourg: 2.03%
- Slovak Republic: 2.02%
- Czechia: 2.01%
- Belgium: 2.00%
- Spain: 2.00%
- Slovenia: 1.61%
Note: Iceland does not have a standing army, navy, or air force, meaning its defense expenditure is effectively zero. The country’s strategic position is its biggest contribution to NATO. Iceland has, however, pledged to allocate 1.5% of its GDP to security- and defense-related investments by 2035.
