Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Talk about choosing the lesser of two evils …
The war in Ukraine was meant to be a swift operation leading to a sweeping Russian victory in less than two weeks.
At least, that was what the Kremlin expected to happen when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, according to previous Western intelligence reports.
The war is now in its fifth year, with Russian casualties inching closer and closer to one percent of the country’s entire population.
The latest estimates from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine put Russian casualties at more than 1.35 million as of May 22.
And according to a new report, the war in Ukraine is now forcing Vladimir Putin to choose between two options — both of which could be devastating to both Russia as a nation and to his rule.
A tough crossroads
According to a report by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the Kremlin is reaching its absolute limits in terms of the economic and human resources needed to sustain its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Until now, the government has avoided full societal mobilization by offering high-paying contracts to recruit soldiers. But severe labor shortages, growing budget deficits, and massive battlefield casualties are fracturing this system.
Historically, nations engaged in major European conflicts have always imposed total mobilization on their populations. The IISS report points out that every major combatant in World War II used conscription, but Moscow has resisted this path.
A grim choice
The financial strain has already triggered high inflation, soaring interest rates, and tax hikes that are damaging the civilian economy. As a result, the Kremlin now faces a stark crossroads.
According to the IISS, “the Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice over whether to radically escalate its demands on Russia’s economy and society or to scale back its war aims.” To keep fighting, the state would likely need to “introduce significant new command-like measures that forcibly mobilise human and material resources” for its operations.
These extreme adjustments would severely restrict basic civil liberties. Instead of relying on cash incentives, the state would likely force citizens to work in defense factories and restrict foreign travel. The digital tools needed to block border crossings are already operational.
This path points toward a completely militarized, Soviet-style command economy with widespread nationalization and strict price controls. While the Kremlin fears public backlash, recent regional internet shutdowns suggest security forces are preparing to suppress potential protests.
Desperate distraction tactics
The cracks in the war effort are triggering other defensive maneuvers behind the scenes. Documents obtained by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reveal that Russia’s Presidential Administration recently ordered a massive disinformation campaign against Ukraine.
Ukrainian intelligence shared these findings on its official website on May 20. The directive apparently came directly from Russian leader Vladimir Putin following a stalled spring offensive and growing domestic financial pressures.
Sources: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
